Villaralbo v Bembibre prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:45

Villaralbo 2–0 Bembibre VILLARALBO WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Villaralbo win~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.413

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 9 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Villaralbo win at 48%.
1′Much as we predicted: Villaralbo was 48% before kick-off and our model makes it 47% now. 0–0 · 47–27–26
1′KICK-OFF Villaralbo v Bembibre
14′Villaralbo find the net on 14′. 1–0. 1–0 · 75–17–8
14′We published Villaralbo at 48%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–17–8
14′⚽ GOAL · 14' Villaralbo 1–0 Bembibre
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 14' Villaralbo win: 48% at kick-off, 75% now
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.3 we expected. 1–0 · 76–17–6
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Villaralbo win: 48% at kick-off, 78% now
45′HALF-TIME Villaralbo 1–0 Bembibre
46′SECOND HALF Villaralbo 1–0 Bembibre
51′We published Villaralbo at 48%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–4
64′A goal for Villaralbo on 64′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 98–2–0
64′We published Villaralbo at 48%. Our model now makes it 98%. 2–0 · 98–2–0
64′⚽ GOAL · 64' Villaralbo 2–0 Bembibre
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 64' Villaralbo win: 48% at kick-off, 98% now
80′We published Villaralbo at 48%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Villaralbo 2–0 Bembibre
FTVillaralbo 2–0 Bembibre · Villaralbo win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Villaralbo are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Villaralbo 48%, draw 27%, Bembibre 26%. Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Villaralbo v BembibreBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Villaralbo win48%

Draw27%

Bembibre win26%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 16:00

RoundGroup 8 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Villaralbo

Bembibre

6Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 8

Last match: 17 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 8

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Bembibre	7	+4	14
13	Villaralbo	7	0	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · villaralbo winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

48% The market–

Us48%

We make Villaralbo a 48% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–0.9, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Villaralbo v Bembibre~~1.38 – 0.93

~~Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 this season · since 13 Sept~~W1 D3 L2 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 6 v 14~~13 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Villaralbo win	48%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Bembibre win	26%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	41%	–	–
Both teams to score	45%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	67%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	20%	–	–
Villaralbo or draw	74%	–	–
Villaralbo clean sheet	40%	–	–
Bembibre clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.0%

0123450 9.9 9.5 4.3 1 14.0 12.3 5.8 2 9.4 8.6 4.0 3 4.4 4.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Villaralbo down, Bembibre across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,534 Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.5% of games this season, across 62 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Villaralbo at home: 1.83 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Bembibre away: 2.00 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.38 goals for Villaralbo, 0.93 for Bembibre. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 6

~~Both scored~~1 of 6

~~Last meetings~~BEM 1–0 VIL · VIL 0–1 BEM · VIL 4–0 BEM · BEM 1–1 VIL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 this season · since 13 Sept

VILLARALBO

LDWDDL1–2 · 2–2 · 4–0 · 2–2 · 2–2 · 0–2

BEMBIBRE

DLWWWD1–1 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Cristo Atlético	7	+7	16
2	Cultural Leonesa II	7	+7	16
3	Burgos Promesas	7	+7	14
4	Bembibre	7	+4	14
5	UD Santa Marta	7	+4	14
6	Palencia CF	7	+6	13
7	La Virgen del Camino	7	−1	12
8	Atlético Mansillés	6	+2	10
9	Almazán	7	−1	10
10	Guijuelo	6	+5	9
11	Arandina	7	−1	9
12	Calasanz de Soria	7	−5	7
13	Villaralbo	7	0	6
14	Turégano	7	−3	6
15	Unionistas II	7	−5	5
16	Colegios Diocesanos	7	−8	4
17	Salamanca II	7	−11	4
18	Mirandés II	7	−7	2