Unionistas II v Guijuelo prediction · Tercera División RFEF

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Unionistas IIDrawGuijuelo

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 11:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Guijuelo 52%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Guijuelo are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Unionistas II 22%, draw 25%, Guijuelo 52%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Unionistas II v GuijueloBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Unionistas II win22%

Draw25%

Guijuelo win52%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 11:00

RoundGroup 8 · matchday 8

VenueLas Pistas del Helmantico

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Unionistas II

Guijuelo

8Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 8

Last match: 18 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 8

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Guijuelo	6	+5	9
15	Unionistas II	7	−5	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · guijuelo winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

52% The market–

Us52%

We make Guijuelo a 52% chance to win. The model expects 0.9–1.5, and 0–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Unionistas II v Guijuelo~~0.88 – 1.54

~~Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 this season · since 6 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 5 v 9~~15 v 11

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Unionistas II win	22%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Guijuelo win	52%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	43%	–	–
Both teams to score	45%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	69%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	23%	–	–
Unionistas II or draw	48%	–	–
Unionistas II clean sheet	22%	–	–
Guijuelo clean sheet	42%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 13.8%

0123450 9.0 13.8 10.4 5.4 2.2 1 8.2 11.6 8.9 4.6 2 3.6 5.3 4.0 2.0 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Unionistas II down, Guijuelo across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,540 Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.6% of games this season, across 68 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Unionistas II at home: 0.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Guijuelo away: 1.50 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.88 goals for Unionistas II, 1.54 for Guijuelo. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~UNI 1–2 GUI · GUI 1–0 UNI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 this season · since 6 Sept

UNIONISTAS II

DLDLLW1–1 · 2–3 · 0–0 · 0–3 · 1–2 · 2–1

GUIJUELO

LWLLWW0–1 · 3–1 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 5–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Cristo Atlético	8	+9	19
2	UD Santa Marta	8	+5	17
3	Cultural Leonesa II	7	+7	16
4	Burgos Promesas	7	+7	14
5	Palencia CF	8	+6	14
6	Bembibre	8	+2	14
7	La Virgen del Camino	8	−1	13
8	Atlético Mansillés	7	+2	11
9	Arandina	8	−1	10
10	Almazán	8	−2	10
11	Guijuelo	6	+5	9
12	Villaralbo	8	+2	9
13	Turégano	8	−3	7
14	Calasanz de Soria	7	−5	7
15	Unionistas II	7	−5	5
16	Colegios Diocesanos	8	−10	4
17	Salamanca II	7	−11	4
18	Mirandés II	8	−7	3