UD Santa Marta v Almazán prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:45

UD Santa Marta 2–1 Almazán UD SANTA MARTA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said UD Santa Marta win~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.367

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said UD Santa Marta win at 51%.
1′Much as we predicted: UD Santa Marta was 51% before kick-off and our model makes it 50% now. 0–0 · 50–24–25
1′KICK-OFF UD Santa Marta v Almazán
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' UD Santa Marta win: 51% at kick-off, 41% now
45′We said UD Santa Marta at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–38–22
45′HALF-TIME UD Santa Marta 0–0 Almazán
46′SECOND HALF UD Santa Marta 0–0 Almazán
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' UD Santa Marta win: 51% at kick-off, 78% now
51′THE CALL SWINGS · 51' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was UD Santa Marta win 39%)
52′A goal for UD Santa Marta on 51′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 79–17–4
52′We published UD Santa Marta at 51%. Our model now makes it 79%. 1–0 · 79–17–4
52′⚽ GOAL · 51' UD Santa Marta 1–0 Almazán
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 52' UD Santa Marta win: 51% at kick-off, 79% now
52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' UD Santa Marta win is now our likeliest result at 79% (was Draw 42%)
56′We published UD Santa Marta at 51%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–4
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 60' UD Santa Marta win: 51% at kick-off, 81% now
70′We published UD Santa Marta at 51%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
79′We published UD Santa Marta at 51%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' UD Santa Marta win: 51% at kick-off, 91% now
86′We published UD Santa Marta at 51%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
86′Almazán score on 86′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 8–86–5
86′We said UD Santa Marta at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 8%. 1–1 · 8–86–5
86′⚽ GOAL · 86' UD Santa Marta 1–1 Almazán
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' UD Santa Marta win: 51% at kick-off, 8% now
86′THE CALL SWINGS · 86' Draw is now our likeliest result at 86% (was UD Santa Marta win 95%)
91′We said UD Santa Marta at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–93–3
100′UD Santa Marta find the net on 90′. 2–1. 2–1 · 99–1–0
100′⚽ GOAL · 90+9' UD Santa Marta 2–1 Almazán
100′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+10' UD Santa Marta win: 51% at kick-off, 99% now
100′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+10' UD Santa Marta win is now our likeliest result at 99% (was Draw 97%)
101′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 99–1–0
FTFULL TIME UD Santa Marta 2–1 Almazán
FTUD Santa Marta 2–1 Almazán · UD Santa Marta win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

UD Santa Marta are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: UD Santa Marta 51%, draw 24%, Almazán 25%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on UD Santa Marta v AlmazánBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

UD Santa Marta win51%

Draw24%

Almazán win25%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 16:00

RoundGroup 8 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

UD Santa Marta

Almazán

6Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 8

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	UD Santa Marta	7	+4	14
9	Almazán	7	−1	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ud santa marta winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

51% The market–

Us51%

We make UD Santa Marta a 51% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · UD Santa Marta v Almazán~~1.64 – 1.08

~~Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 this season · since 12 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W1 D4 L1

~~Table places · points 14 v 10~~5 v 9

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · UD Santa Marta win

Our number has not moved since we published.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
UD Santa Marta win	51%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Almazán win	25%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	51%	–	–
Both teams to score	53%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	75%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	29%	–	–
UD Santa Marta or draw	75%	–	–
UD Santa Marta clean sheet	34%	–	–
Almazán clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.3%

0123450 6.6 7.4 3.9 1 11.1 11.3 6.2 2.3 2 8.8 9.3 5.0 3 4.8 5.1 2.8 4 2.0 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+UD Santa Marta down, Almazán across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,534 Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.5% of games this season, across 62 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.10 goals a meeting; 2 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

UD Santa Marta at home: 1.67 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Almazán away: 1.00 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.64 goals for UD Santa Marta, 1.08 for Almazán. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.10

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ALM 1–1 UDS · UDS 3–2 ALM · ALM 1–1 UDS · UDS 0–0 ALM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 this season · since 12 Sept

UD SANTA MARTA

WWLWDD2–1 · 3–0 · 0–3 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 0–0

ALMAZÁN

DDDDLW1–1 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 2–5 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Cristo Atlético	7	+7	16
2	Cultural Leonesa II	7	+7	16
3	Burgos Promesas	7	+7	14
4	Bembibre	7	+4	14
5	UD Santa Marta	7	+4	14
6	Palencia CF	7	+6	13
7	La Virgen del Camino	7	−1	12
8	Atlético Mansillés	6	+2	10
9	Almazán	7	−1	10
10	Guijuelo	6	+5	9
11	Arandina	7	−1	9
12	Calasanz de Soria	7	−5	7
13	Villaralbo	7	0	6
14	Turégano	7	−3	6
15	Unionistas II	7	−5	5
16	Colegios Diocesanos	7	−8	4
17	Salamanca II	7	−11	4
18	Mirandés II	7	−7	2