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Turégano v Colegios Diocesanos

Turégano

3–2Full time

Colegios Diocesanos

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · SAT 17 OCT

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:42

Turégano 3–2 Colegios Diocesanos TURÉGANO WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Turégano win~~54%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.320

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay18 notes · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Turégano win at 54%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Turégano 54% before kick-off, 54% now. 0–0 · 54–25–21
1′KICK-OFF Turégano v Colegios Diocesanos
20′Turégano find the net on 19′. 1–0. 1–0 · 79–15–6
20′We said Turégano at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 79%. 1–0 · 79–15–6
20′⚽ GOAL · 19' Turégano 1–0 Colegios Diocesanos
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 20' Turégano win: 54% at kick-off, 79% now
22′We said Turégano at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–15–5
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.4 we expected. 1–0 · 80–15–5
45′We said Turégano at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 41%. 1–1 · 41–41–19
45′HALF-TIME Turégano 1–1 Colegios Diocesanos
46′SECOND HALF Turégano 1–1 Colegios Diocesanos
48′A goal for Colegios Diocesanos on 45′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 39–43–18
48′We said Turégano at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 1–1 · 39–43–18
48′⚽ GOAL · 45+2' Turégano 1–1 Colegios Diocesanos
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+3' Turégano win: 54% at kick-off, 39% now
50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Turégano win 38%)
57′We said Turégano at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–49–16
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 57' Turégano win: 54% at kick-off, 34% now
65′We said Turégano at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–57–14
70′Colegios Diocesanos score on 70′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 4–21–75
70′We said Turégano at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–2 · 4–21–75
70′⚽ GOAL · 70' Turégano 1–2 Colegios Diocesanos
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Turégano win: 54% at kick-off, 4% now
70′THE CALL SWINGS · 70' Colegios Diocesanos win is now our likeliest result at 75% (was Draw 21%)
71′3 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 4–20–76
90′Turégano find the net on 89′. 2–2. 2–2 · 5–92–3
90′⚽ GOAL · 89' Turégano 2–2 Colegios Diocesanos
90′THE CALL SWINGS · 90' Draw is now our likeliest result at 92% (was Colegios Diocesanos win 3%)
91′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 4–94–2
91′A goal for Turégano on 90′ — 3–2. 3–2 · 98–2–0
91′We said Turégano at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 98%. 3–2 · 98–2–0
91′⚽ GOAL · 90+1' Turégano 3–2 Colegios Diocesanos
91′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+1' Turégano win: 54% at kick-off, 98% now
91′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+1' Turégano win is now our likeliest result at 98% (was Draw 2%)
92′5 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 3–2 · 98–2–0
FTFULL TIME Turégano 3–2 Colegios Diocesanos
FTTurégano 3–2 Colegios Diocesanos · Turégano win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Turégano are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Turégano 54%, draw 25%, Colegios Diocesanos 21%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on Turégano v Colegios DiocesanosBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Turégano win54%

Draw25%

Colegios Diocesanos win21%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 16:00

RoundGroup 8 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Turégano

Colegios Diocesanos

7Days since last match6

Last match: 10 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 8

Last match: 11 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 8

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
14	Colegios Diocesanos	6	−7	4
16	Turégano	6	−4	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · turégano winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 00:12 · locked at kick-off

54% The market–

Us54%

We make Turégano a 54% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–0.8, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Turégano v Colegios Diocesanos~~1.55 – 0.85

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 this season · since 5 Sept~~W0 D3 L3 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 3 v 4~~16 v 14

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Turégano win

Published at 55%, 54% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Turégano win	54%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Colegios Diocesanos win	21%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	43%	–	–
Both teams to score	44%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	68%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	22%	–	–
Turégano or draw	79%	–	–
Turégano clean sheet	43%	–	–
Colegios Diocesanos clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.3%

0123450 9.2 8.0 3.3 1 14.3 11.4 5.0 2 10.8 8.9 3.8 3 5.6 4.7 4 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Turégano down, Colegios Diocesanos across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,525 Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.3% of games this season, across 53 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Turégano at home: 0.75 scored, 1.75 conceded a game (last 4). Colegios Diocesanos away: 0.33 scored, 3.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.55 goals for Turégano, 0.85 for Colegios Diocesanos. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 this season · since 5 Sept

TURÉGANO

LLLDDD1–2 · 1–3 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 2–2

COLEGIOS DIOCESANOS

LLLDLW0–2 · 0–3 · 0–3 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Burgos Promesas	6	+8	14
2	Cristo Atlético	6	+5	13
3	Cultural Leonesa II	6	+5	13
4	Bembibre	6	+4	13
5	UD Santa Marta	6	+4	13
6	La Virgen del Camino	6	+3	12
7	Palencia CF	6	+5	10
8	Atlético Mansillés	5	+3	10
9	Arandina	6	−1	8
10	Almazán	6	−2	7
11	Calasanz de Soria	6	−4	7
12	Villaralbo	6	+2	6
13	Guijuelo	5	+1	6
14	Colegios Diocesanos	6	−7	4
15	Salamanca II	6	−9	4
16	Turégano	6	−4	3
17	Unionistas II	6	−6	2
18	Mirandés II	6	−7	1