Salamanca II v UD Santa Marta prediction · Tercera División RFEF

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Salamanca IIDrawUD Santa Marta

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:00

Before kick-off · Match result · UD Santa Marta 47%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

UD Santa Marta are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Salamanca II 28%, draw 24%, UD Santa Marta 47%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Salamanca II v UD Santa MartaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Salamanca II win28%

Draw24%

UD Santa Marta win47%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 16:00

RoundGroup 8 · matchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Salamanca II

UD Santa Marta

14Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 8

Last match: 24 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 8

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	UD Santa Marta	8	+5	17
17	Salamanca II	7	−11	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ud santa marta winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

47% The market–

Us47%

We make UD Santa Marta a 47% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.6, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Salamanca II v UD Santa Marta~~1.16 – 1.59

~~Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 this season · since 12 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 4 v 17~~17 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Salamanca II win	28%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
UD Santa Marta win	47%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	51%	–	–
Both teams to score	54%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	75%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	30%	–	–
Salamanca II or draw	53%	–	–
Salamanca II clean sheet	21%	–	–
UD Santa Marta clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.4%

0123450 6.6 10.4 8.0 4.3 1 7.7 11.4 9.0 4.8 2 4.4 6.7 5.2 2.8 3 2.6 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Salamanca II down, UD Santa Marta across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,540 Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.6% of games this season, across 68 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Salamanca II at home: 1.50 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). UD Santa Marta away: 0.67 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.16 goals for Salamanca II, 1.59 for UD Santa Marta. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~4 of 4

~~Last meetings~~SAL 2–1 UDS · UDS 1–1 SAL · SAL 1–1 UDS · UDS 2–1 SAL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 this season · since 12 Sept

SALAMANCA II

DLLWLL1–1 · 3–4 · 0–4 · 1–0 · 1–5 · 0–2

UD SANTA MARTA

WLWDDW3–0 · 0–3 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Cristo Atlético	8	+9	19
2	UD Santa Marta	8	+5	17
3	Cultural Leonesa II	7	+7	16
4	Burgos Promesas	7	+7	14
5	Palencia CF	8	+6	14
6	Bembibre	8	+2	14
7	La Virgen del Camino	8	−1	13
8	Atlético Mansillés	7	+2	11
9	Arandina	8	−1	10
10	Almazán	8	−2	10
11	Guijuelo	6	+5	9
12	Villaralbo	8	+2	9
13	Turégano	8	−3	7
14	Calasanz de Soria	7	−5	7
15	Unionistas II	7	−5	5
16	Colegios Diocesanos	8	−10	4
17	Salamanca II	7	−11	4
18	Mirandés II	8	−7	3