Salamanca II v Cultural Leonesa II prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:42

Salamanca II 0–2 Cultural Leonesa II CULTURAL LEONESA II WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Cultural Leonesa II win~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.476

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 8 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Cultural Leonesa II win at 44%.
1′Much as we predicted: Cultural Leonesa II was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 32–25–44
1′KICK-OFF Salamanca II v Cultural Leonesa II
45′HALF-TIME Salamanca II 0–0 Cultural Leonesa II
46′SECOND HALF Salamanca II 0–0 Cultural Leonesa II
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Cultural Leonesa II win: 44% at kick-off, 34% now
47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Cultural Leonesa II win 34%)
52′We said Cultural Leonesa II at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 32%. 0–0 · 25–43–32
55′We expected about 2.8 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 24–45–31
59′We said Cultural Leonesa II at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 23–48–29
68′We said Cultural Leonesa II at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 19–57–24
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' Cultural Leonesa II win: 44% at kick-off, 24% now
74′We said Cultural Leonesa II at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 16–65–19
80′We said Cultural Leonesa II at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 11–75–14
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' Cultural Leonesa II win: 44% at kick-off, 14% now
84′We said Cultural Leonesa II at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 7–84–9
FTFULL TIME Salamanca II 0–0 Cultural Leonesa II
FTSalamanca II 0–2 Cultural Leonesa II · Cultural Leonesa II win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Cultural Leonesa II are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Salamanca II 32%, draw 25%, Cultural Leonesa II 44%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Salamanca II v Cultural Leonesa IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Salamanca II win32%

Draw25%

Cultural Leonesa II win44%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 16:00

RoundGroup 8 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Salamanca II

Cultural Leonesa II

6Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 8

Last match: 10 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 8

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Cultural Leonesa II	6	+5	13
15	Salamanca II	6	−9	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cultural leonesa ii winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 04:05 · locked at kick-off

44% The market–

Us44%

We make Cultural Leonesa II a 44% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.5, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Salamanca II v Cultural Leonesa II~~1.24 – 1.52

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 this season · since 6 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 4 v 13~~15 v 3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Cultural Leonesa II win

Published at 40%, 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Salamanca II win	32%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Cultural Leonesa II win	44%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	52%	–	–
Both teams to score	54%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	75%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	30%	–	–
Salamanca II or draw	56%	–	–
Salamanca II clean sheet	23%	–	–
Cultural Leonesa II clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.5%

0123450 6.5 10.0 7.3 3.7 1 8.3 11.5 8.7 4.4 2 5.0 7.2 5.4 2.7 3 2.1 3.0 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Salamanca II down, Cultural Leonesa II across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,525 Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.3% of games this season, across 53 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Salamanca II at home: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Cultural Leonesa II away: 1.17 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.24 goals for Salamanca II, 1.52 for Cultural Leonesa II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~CUL 1–0 SAL · SAL 3–0 CUL · CUL 1–0 SAL · SAL 1–2 CUL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 this season · since 6 Sept

SALAMANCA II

LDLLWL1–2 · 1–1 · 3–4 · 0–4 · 1–0 · 1–5

CULTURAL LEONESA II

WWWDLW2–0 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 5–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Burgos Promesas	6	+8	14
2	Cristo Atlético	6	+5	13
3	Cultural Leonesa II	6	+5	13
4	Bembibre	6	+4	13
5	UD Santa Marta	6	+4	13
6	La Virgen del Camino	6	+3	12
7	Palencia CF	6	+5	10
8	Atlético Mansillés	5	+3	10
9	Arandina	6	−1	8
10	Almazán	6	−2	7
11	Calasanz de Soria	6	−4	7
12	Villaralbo	6	+2	6
13	Guijuelo	5	+1	6
14	Colegios Diocesanos	6	−7	4
15	Salamanca II	6	−9	4
16	Turégano	6	−4	3
17	Unionistas II	6	−6	2
18	Mirandés II	6	−7	1