Palencia CF v Turégano prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:45

Palencia CF 1–1 Turégano PALENCIA CF WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Palencia CF win~~62%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.041

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 17 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Palencia CF win at 62%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Palencia CF 62% before kick-off, 62% now. 0–0 · 62–21–17
1′KICK-OFF Palencia CF v Turégano
19′Turégano find the net on 18′. 0–1. 0–1 · 31–26–43
19′We said Palencia CF at 62%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 31%. 0–1 · 31–26–43
19′⚽ GOAL · 18' Palencia CF 0–1 Turégano
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 19' Palencia CF win: 62% at kick-off, 31% now
19′THE CALL SWINGS · 19' Turégano win is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Palencia CF win 58%)
21′A goal for Palencia CF on 21′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 57–26–18
21′⚽ GOAL · 21' Palencia CF 1–1 Turégano
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Palencia CF win: 62% at kick-off, 57% now
21′THE CALL SWINGS · 21' Palencia CF win is now our likeliest result at 57% (was Turégano win 43%)
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' Palencia CF win: 62% at kick-off, 52% now
39′We said Palencia CF at 62%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 50%. 1–1 · 50–32–17
42′We said Palencia CF at 62%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 49%. 1–1 · 49–34–17
45′HALF-TIME Palencia CF 1–1 Turégano
46′SECOND HALF Palencia CF 1–1 Turégano
50′The goal count is tracking the 2.9 we expected. 1–1 · 45–38–16
52′We said Palencia CF at 62%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 44%. 1–1 · 44–40–16
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' Palencia CF win: 62% at kick-off, 42% now
59′THE CALL SWINGS · 59' Draw is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Palencia CF win 42%)
60′We said Palencia CF at 62%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 1–1 · 39–46–15
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' Palencia CF win: 62% at kick-off, 32% now
71′We said Palencia CF at 62%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–59–12
76′We said Palencia CF at 62%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 23%. 1–1 · 23–67–10
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' Palencia CF win: 62% at kick-off, 22% now
79′We said Palencia CF at 62%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–72–8
83′We said Palencia CF at 62%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 13%. 1–1 · 13–81–6
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Palencia CF win: 62% at kick-off, 12% now
87′We said Palencia CF at 62%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–87–4
92′We said Palencia CF at 62%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–94–2
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+4' Palencia CF win: 62% at kick-off, 2% now
FTFULL TIME Palencia CF 1–1 Turégano
FTPalencia CF 1–1 Turégano · Palencia CF win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Palencia CF are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Palencia CF 62%, draw 21%, Turégano 17%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Palencia CF v TuréganoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Palencia CF win62%

Draw21%

Turégano win17%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 16:00

RoundGroup 8 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Palencia CF

Turégano

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 8

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Palencia CF	7	+6	13
14	Turégano	7	−3	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · palencia cf winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

62% The market–

Us62%

We make Palencia CF a 62% chance to win. The model expects 2.0–0.9, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Palencia CF v Turégano~~1.99 – 0.92

~~Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 this season · since 12 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 13 v 6~~6 v 14

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Palencia CF win	62%	–	–
Draw	21%	–	–
Turégano win	17%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	55%	–	–
Both teams to score	51%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	78%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	33%	–	–
Palencia CF or draw	83%	–	–
Palencia CF clean sheet	40%	–	–
Turégano clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 11.2%

0123450 5.6 5.5 2.4 1 11.2 9.7 4.6 2 10.6 9.5 4.4 3 7.0 6.3 2.9 4 3.6 3.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Palencia CF down, Turégano across0–5 goals a side shown (97.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,534 Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.5% of games this season, across 62 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Palencia CF at home: 2.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Turégano away: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 2).

What the model expects

1.99 goals for Palencia CF, 0.92 for Turégano. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 this season · since 12 Sept

PALENCIA CF

LLWDWW0–1 · 0–3 · 3–0 · 2–2 · 5–1 · 1–0

TURÉGANO

LLDDDW1–3 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Cristo Atlético	7	+7	16
2	Cultural Leonesa II	7	+7	16
3	Burgos Promesas	7	+7	14
4	Bembibre	7	+4	14
5	UD Santa Marta	7	+4	14
6	Palencia CF	7	+6	13
7	La Virgen del Camino	7	−1	12
8	Atlético Mansillés	6	+2	10
9	Almazán	7	−1	10
10	Guijuelo	6	+5	9
11	Arandina	7	−1	9
12	Calasanz de Soria	7	−5	7
13	Villaralbo	7	0	6
14	Turégano	7	−3	6
15	Unionistas II	7	−5	5
16	Colegios Diocesanos	7	−8	4
17	Salamanca II	7	−11	4
18	Mirandés II	7	−7	2