Palencia CF v Salamanca II prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Palencia CF 5–1 Salamanca II PALENCIA CF WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Palencia CF win~~61%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.232

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 19 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Palencia CF win at 61%.
1′Much as we predicted: Palencia CF was 61% before kick-off and our model makes it 61% now. 0–0 · 61–22–18
1′KICK-OFF Palencia CF v Salamanca II
2′Much as we predicted: Palencia CF was 61% before kick-off and our model makes it 61% now. 0–0 · 61–22–18
7′⚽ GOAL · 7' Palencia CF 1–0 Salamanca II
22′A goal for Palencia CF on 7′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 82–13–5
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Palencia CF win: 61% at kick-off, 82% now
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' Palencia CF win: 61% at kick-off, 61% now
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Palencia CF win: 61% at kick-off, 61% now
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Palencia CF win: 61% at kick-off, 82% now
24′A goal for Palencia CF on 7′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 82–13–5
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Palencia CF win: 61% at kick-off, 82% now
38′⚽ GOAL · 37' Palencia CF 2–0 Salamanca II
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Palencia CF win: 61% at kick-off, 82% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Palencia CF win: 61% at kick-off, 82% now
45′⚽ GOAL · 49' Palencia CF 3–0 Salamanca II
45′HALF-TIME Palencia CF 3–0 Salamanca II
45′⚽ GOAL · 7' Palencia CF 3–0 Salamanca II
45′⚽ GOAL · 37' Palencia CF 3–0 Salamanca II
46′SECOND HALF Palencia CF 3–0 Salamanca II
50′⚽ GOAL · 50' Palencia CF 3–1 Salamanca II
52′⚽ GOAL · 52' Palencia CF 4–1 Salamanca II
90′⚽ GOAL · 91' Palencia CF 5–1 Salamanca II
FTFULL TIME Palencia CF 5–1 Salamanca II
FTPalencia CF 5–1 Salamanca II · Palencia CF win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Palencia CF win61%

Draw21%

Salamanca II win18%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 16:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Palencia CF

Salamanca II

8Days since last match8

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Palencia CF	5	+1	7
14	Salamanca II	5	−5	4

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · palencia cf winPublished 11 Oct 16:05

61% The market–

Us61%

We make Palencia CF a 61% chance to win. The model expects 2.0–0.9, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Palencia CF win	61%	–	–
Draw	21%	–	–
Salamanca II win	18%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	55%	–	–
Both teams to score	51%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	78%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	33%	–	–
Palencia CF or draw	82%	–	–
Palencia CF clean sheet	40%	–	–
Salamanca II clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 11.2%

0123450 5.7 5.6 2.5 1 11.2 9.8 4.7 2 10.4 9.5 4.5 3 6.8 6.2 2.9 4 3.4 3.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Palencia CF down, Salamanca II across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,522 Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.0% of games this season, across 50 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 2.75 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Palencia CF at home: 2.33 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Salamanca II away: 0.67 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.95 goals for Palencia CF, 0.94 for Salamanca II. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.75

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~SAL 1–0 PAL · PAL 0–3 SAL · PAL 4–0 SAL · SAL 2–1 PAL

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8

PALENCIA CF

WWLLWD1–0 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 0–3 · 3–0 · 2–2

SALAMANCA II

WLDLLW1–0 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 3–4 · 0–4 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Burgos Promesas	5	+8	13
2	Cristo Atlético	6	+5	13
3	Cultural Leonesa II	6	+5	13
4	Bembibre	6	+4	13
5	UD Santa Marta	5	+4	12
6	La Virgen del Camino	6	+3	12
7	Atlético Mansillés	5	+3	10
8	Arandina	6	−1	8
9	Palencia CF	5	+1	7
10	Almazán	6	−2	7
11	Calasanz de Soria	5	−2	7
12	Villaralbo	6	+2	6
13	Guijuelo	5	+1	6
14	Salamanca II	5	−5	4
15	Turégano	6	−4	3
16	Unionistas II	6	−6	2
17	Mirandés II	6	−7	1
18	Colegios Diocesanos	5	−9	1