Mirandés II v UD Santa Marta prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 18:02

Mirandés II 0–0 UD Santa Marta MIRANDÉS II WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Mirandés II win~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.805

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Mirandés II win at 39%.
1′Much as we predicted: Mirandés II was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 39–27–34
1′KICK-OFF Mirandés II v UD Santa Marta
11′PENALTY MISSED · 11' UD Santa Marta
37′THE CALL SWINGS · 37' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Mirandés II win 33%)
45′HALF-TIME Mirandés II 0–0 UD Santa Marta
46′SECOND HALF Mirandés II 0–0 UD Santa Marta
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Mirandés II win: 39% at kick-off, 29% now
55′We said Mirandés II at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 27%. 0–0 · 27–48–25
55′We expected about 2.4 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 27–48–25
58′UD Santa Marta find the net on 58′. 0–1. 0–1 · 5–21–74
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Mirandés II 0–1 UD Santa Marta
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 58' Mirandés II win: 39% at kick-off, 5% now
58′THE CALL SWINGS · 58' UD Santa Marta win is now our likeliest result at 74% (was Draw 21%)
59′We said Mirandés II at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 5%. 0–1 · 5–21–74
59′GOAL DISALLOWED · 59' UD Santa Marta
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 59' Mirandés II win: 39% at kick-off, 26% now
59′THE CALL SWINGS · 59' Draw is now our likeliest result at 51% (was UD Santa Marta win 23%)
62′We said Mirandés II at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–54–22
71′We said Mirandés II at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–64–17
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Mirandés II win: 39% at kick-off, 19% now
77′We said Mirandés II at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–73–13
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Mirandés II win: 39% at kick-off, 9% now
90′We said Mirandés II at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–92–4
FTFULL TIME Mirandés II 0–0 UD Santa Marta
FTMirandés II 0–0 UD Santa Marta · Mirandés II win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Mirandés II are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Mirandés II 39%, draw 27%, UD Santa Marta 34%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Mirandés II v UD Santa MartaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Mirandés II win39%

Draw27%

UD Santa Marta win34%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 15:30

RoundGroup 8 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Mirandés II

UD Santa Marta

8Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 8

Last match: 11 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 8

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	UD Santa Marta	6	+4	13
18	Mirandés II	6	−7	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · mirandés ii winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

39% The market–

Us39%

We make Mirandés II a 39% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Mirandés II v UD Santa Marta~~1.27 – 1.17

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 this season · since 5 Sept~~W0 D1 L5 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 1 v 13~~18 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Mirandés II win	39%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
UD Santa Marta win	34%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	44%	–	–
Both teams to score	49%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	69%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	23%	–	–
Mirandés II or draw	66%	–	–
Mirandés II clean sheet	31%	–	–
UD Santa Marta clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.5%

0123450 8.7 10.5 6.0 2.4 1 11.4 12.5 7.4 2.9 2 7.0 8.0 4.7 3 3.0 3.4 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Mirandés II down, UD Santa Marta across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,530 Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.8% of games this season, across 58 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Mirandés II at home: 1.17 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). UD Santa Marta away: 1.00 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.27 goals for Mirandés II, 1.17 for UD Santa Marta. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~MIR 2–3 UDS · UDS 0–2 MIR · UDS 1–1 MIR · MIR 0–2 UDS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 this season · since 5 Sept

MIRANDÉS II

LDLLLL0–2 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 0–2

UD SANTA MARTA

WWWLWD1–0 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 0–3 · 2–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Cultural Leonesa II	7	+7	16
2	Burgos Promesas	6	+8	14
3	Bembibre	7	+4	14
4	Palencia CF	7	+6	13
5	Cristo Atlético	6	+5	13
6	UD Santa Marta	6	+4	13
7	La Virgen del Camino	6	+3	12
8	Atlético Mansillés	6	+2	10
9	Arandina	7	−1	9
10	Almazán	6	−2	7
11	Calasanz de Soria	7	−5	7
12	Villaralbo	6	+2	6
13	Guijuelo	5	+1	6
14	Turégano	7	−3	6
15	Unionistas II	7	−5	5
16	Colegios Diocesanos	7	−8	4
17	Salamanca II	7	−11	4
18	Mirandés II	6	−7	1