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La Virgen del Camino v Atlético Mansillés

La Virgen del Camino
1–0Full time
Atlético Mansillés

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 19:45
La Virgen del Camino 1–0 Atlético Mansillés LA VIRGEN DEL CAMINO WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT
We said La Virgen del Camino win39%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.559

Corrected on 12 Oct: this match was first graded on a score of 0–0; the score is now 1–0 and the grades above follow it.

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 18 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said La Virgen del Camino win at 39%.
  2. 2′Much as we predicted: La Virgen del Camino was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 38–33–29
  3. 2′KICK-OFF La Virgen del Camino v Atlético Mansillés
  4. 45′HALF-TIME La Virgen del Camino 0–0 Atlético Mansillés
  5. 45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' La Virgen del Camino win: 39% at kick-off, 29% now
  6. 45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 49% (was La Virgen del Camino win 29%)
  7. 46′SECOND HALF La Virgen del Camino 0–0 Atlético Mansillés
  8. 52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' La Virgen del Camino win: 39% at kick-off, 29% now
  9. 52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' Draw is now our likeliest result at 49% (was La Virgen del Camino win 29%)
  10. 53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' La Virgen del Camino win: 39% at kick-off, 29% now
  11. 53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Draw is now our likeliest result at 49% (was La Virgen del Camino win 29%)
  12. 54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' La Virgen del Camino win: 39% at kick-off, 29% now
  13. 54′THE CALL SWINGS · 54' Draw is now our likeliest result at 49% (was La Virgen del Camino win 29%)
  14. 55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' La Virgen del Camino win: 39% at kick-off, 29% now
  15. 55′THE CALL SWINGS · 55' Draw is now our likeliest result at 49% (was La Virgen del Camino win 29%)
  16. 56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' La Virgen del Camino win: 39% at kick-off, 29% now
  17. 56′THE CALL SWINGS · 56' Draw is now our likeliest result at 49% (was La Virgen del Camino win 29%)
  18. 57′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 57' La Virgen del Camino win: 39% at kick-off, 29% now
  19. 57′THE CALL SWINGS · 57' Draw is now our likeliest result at 49% (was La Virgen del Camino win 29%)
  20. FTFULL TIME La Virgen del Camino 0–0 Atlético Mansillés
  21. FTLa Virgen del Camino 1–0 Atlético Mansillés · La Virgen del Camino win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

La Virgen del Camino win39%
Draw32%
Atlético Mansillés win29%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:30

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · la virgen del camino winPublished 10 Oct 15:43
39% The market–
Us39%

We make La Virgen del Camino a 39% chance to win. The model expects 1.0–0.8, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 16%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
La Virgen del Camino win39%––
Draw32%––
Atlético Mansillés win29%––
Over 2.5 goals28%––
Both teams to score35%––
Over 1.5 goals55%––
Over 3.5 goals12%––
La Virgen del Camino or draw71%––
La Virgen del Camino clean sheet44%––
Atlético Mansillés clean sheet37%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 16.2%
0123450 15.8 13.4 5.5 1 16.2 12.8 5.5 2 8.1 6.6 2.8 3 2.8 2.3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+La Virgen del Camino down, Atlético Mansillés across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024
Goals a meeting1.75
Over 2.52 of 4
Both scored2 of 4
Last meetingsLAV 0–0 ATL · ATL 2–1 LAV · LAV 1–0 ATL · ATL 1–2 LAV

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8

LA VIRGEN DEL CAMINO

LWWWLL1–2 · 2–1 · 4–1 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 0–2

ATLÉTICO MANSILLÉS

LDWDWW0–1 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Burgos Promesas5+813
2UD Santa Marta5+412
3Atlético Mansillés4+410
4Bembibre5+310
5Cristo Atlético5+310
6Cultural Leonesa II5+210
7La Virgen del Camino5+29
8Arandina5+18
9Almazán5+17
10Palencia CF5+17
11Calasanz de Soria5−27
12Villaralbo5+25
13Salamanca II5−54
14Guijuelo4−13
15Turégano5−42
16Unionistas II5−52
17Mirandés II5−51
18Colegios Diocesanos5−91

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.