Cultural Leonesa II v Calasanz de Soria prediction · Tercera División RFEF

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Cultural Leonesa IIDrawCalasanz de Soria

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Cultural Leonesa II 59%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Cultural Leonesa II are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Cultural Leonesa II 59%, draw 23%, Calasanz de Soria 19%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Cultural Leonesa II v Calasanz de SoriaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Cultural Leonesa II win59%

Draw23%

Calasanz de Soria win19%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 15:30

RoundGroup 8 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Cultural Leonesa II

Calasanz de Soria

8Days since last match8

Last match: 17 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 8

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Cultural Leonesa II	7	+7	16
14	Calasanz de Soria	7	−5	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cultural leonesa ii winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

59% The market–

Us59%

We make Cultural Leonesa II a 59% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–0.9, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Cultural Leonesa II v Calasanz de Soria~~1.80 – 0.88

~~Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 this season · since 12 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 16 v 7~~3 v 14

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Cultural Leonesa II win	59%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Calasanz de Soria win	19%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	50%	–	–
Both teams to score	48%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	74%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	28%	–	–
Cultural Leonesa II or draw	81%	–	–
Cultural Leonesa II clean sheet	42%	–	–
Calasanz de Soria clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.6%

0123450 7.1 6.4 2.8 1 12.6 10.6 4.7 2 10.9 9.4 4.2 3 6.5 5.6 2.5 4 3.0 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Cultural Leonesa II down, Calasanz de Soria across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,540 Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.6% of games this season, across 68 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Cultural Leonesa II at home: 2.00 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Calasanz de Soria away: 0.33 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.80 goals for Cultural Leonesa II, 0.88 for Calasanz de Soria. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 this season · since 12 Sept

CULTURAL LEONESA II

WWDLWW1–0 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 5–2 · 2–0

CALASANZ DE SORIA

LWLDLL1–4 · 3–2 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Cristo Atlético	8	+9	19
2	UD Santa Marta	8	+5	17
3	Cultural Leonesa II	7	+7	16
4	Burgos Promesas	7	+7	14
5	Palencia CF	8	+6	14
6	Bembibre	8	+2	14
7	La Virgen del Camino	8	−1	13
8	Atlético Mansillés	7	+2	11
9	Arandina	8	−1	10
10	Almazán	8	−2	10
11	Guijuelo	6	+5	9
12	Villaralbo	8	+2	9
13	Turégano	8	−3	7
14	Calasanz de Soria	7	−5	7
15	Unionistas II	7	−5	5
16	Colegios Diocesanos	8	−10	4
17	Salamanca II	7	−11	4
18	Mirandés II	8	−7	3