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Cultural Leonesa II v Almazán

Cultural Leonesa II

5–2Full time

Almazán

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 20:02

Cultural Leonesa II 5–2 Almazán CULTURAL LEONESA II WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Cultural Leonesa II win~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.440

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 30 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Cultural Leonesa II win at 46%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Cultural Leonesa II 46% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 46–26–28
1′KICK-OFF Cultural Leonesa II v Almazán
3′Little has changed for our model: Cultural Leonesa II 46% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 45–27–28
21′⚽ GOAL · 21' Cultural Leonesa II 1–0 Almazán
22′Cultural Leonesa II find the net on 21′. 1–0. 1–0 · 73–18–9
22′⚽ GOAL · 22' Cultural Leonesa II 1–0 Almazán
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Cultural Leonesa II win: 46% at kick-off, 73% now
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' Cultural Leonesa II win: 46% at kick-off, 45% now
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Cultural Leonesa II win: 46% at kick-off, 45% now
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Cultural Leonesa II win: 46% at kick-off, 73% now
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Cultural Leonesa II win: 46% at kick-off, 73% now
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Cultural Leonesa II win: 46% at kick-off, 45% now
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' Cultural Leonesa II win: 46% at kick-off, 45% now
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' Cultural Leonesa II win: 46% at kick-off, 73% now
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' Cultural Leonesa II win: 46% at kick-off, 73% now
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 26' Cultural Leonesa II win: 46% at kick-off, 45% now
27′Cultural Leonesa II find the net on 21′. 1–0. 1–0 · 74–18–8
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' Cultural Leonesa II win: 46% at kick-off, 73% now
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 27' Cultural Leonesa II win: 46% at kick-off, 45% now
45′HALF-TIME Cultural Leonesa II 1–0 Almazán
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Cultural Leonesa II win: 46% at kick-off, 73% now
46′SECOND HALF Cultural Leonesa II 1–0 Almazán
64′⚽ GOAL · 64' Cultural Leonesa II 2–0 Almazán
65′⚽ GOAL · 21' Cultural Leonesa II 2–0 Almazán
65′⚽ GOAL · 64' Cultural Leonesa II 2–0 Almazán
68′⚽ GOAL · 21' Cultural Leonesa II 2–0 Almazán
68′⚽ GOAL · 64' Cultural Leonesa II 2–0 Almazán
72′⚽ GOAL · 72' Cultural Leonesa II 3–0 Almazán
73′⚽ GOAL · 72' Cultural Leonesa II 3–0 Almazán
77′⚽ GOAL · 76' Cultural Leonesa II 4–0 Almazán
80′⚽ GOAL · 79' Cultural Leonesa II 4–1 Almazán
83′⚽ GOAL · 82' Cultural Leonesa II 5–1 Almazán
85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Cultural Leonesa II 5–2 Almazán
FTFULL TIME Cultural Leonesa II 5–2 Almazán
FTCultural Leonesa II 5–2 Almazán · Cultural Leonesa II win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Cultural Leonesa II win46%

Draw26%

Almazán win28%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 17:15

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cultural leonesa ii winPublished 10 Oct 17:01

46% The market–

Us46%

We make Cultural Leonesa II a 46% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Cultural Leonesa II win	46%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Almazán win	28%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	46%	–	–
Both teams to score	50%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	71%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	25%	–	–
Cultural Leonesa II or draw	72%	–	–
Cultural Leonesa II clean sheet	34%	–	–
Almazán clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.0%

0123450 7.9 8.9 4.7 1 11.8 12.0 6.6 2.4 2 8.3 8.9 4.8 3 4.1 4.3 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Cultural Leonesa II down, Almazán across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,516 Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.2% of games this season, across 44 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 2.70 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Cultural Leonesa II at home: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Almazán away: 1.00 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.46 goals for Cultural Leonesa II, 1.08 for Almazán. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.70

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ALM 3–0 CUL · CUL 2–3 ALM · CUL 3–0 ALM · ALM 1–2 CUL

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8

CULTURAL LEONESA II

DWWWDL1–1 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 0–2

ALMAZÁN

DWDDDD1–1 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Burgos Promesas	5	+8	13
2	UD Santa Marta	5	+4	12
3	Atlético Mansillés	4	+4	10
4	Bembibre	5	+3	10
5	Cristo Atlético	5	+3	10
6	Cultural Leonesa II	5	+2	10
7	La Virgen del Camino	5	+2	9
8	Arandina	5	+1	8
9	Almazán	5	+1	7
10	Palencia CF	5	+1	7
11	Calasanz de Soria	5	−2	7
12	Villaralbo	5	+2	5
13	Salamanca II	5	−5	4
14	Guijuelo	4	−1	3
15	Turégano	5	−4	2
16	Unionistas II	5	−5	2
17	Mirandés II	5	−5	1
18	Colegios Diocesanos	5	−9	1