Cristo Atlético v Villaralbo prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 18:32

Cristo Atlético 2–0 Villaralbo CRISTO ATLÉTICO WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Cristo Atlético win~~54%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.315

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 9 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Cristo Atlético win at 54%.
2′Little has changed for our model: Cristo Atlético 54% before kick-off, 54% now. 0–0 · 54–27–19
2′KICK-OFF Cristo Atlético v Villaralbo
4′A goal for Cristo Atlético on 4′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 81–14–5
4′We said Cristo Atlético at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 81%. 1–0 · 81–14–5
4′⚽ GOAL · 4' Cristo Atlético 1–0 Villaralbo
4′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 4' Cristo Atlético win: 54% at kick-off, 81% now
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.2 we expected. 1–0 · 82–14–4
45′HALF-TIME Cristo Atlético 1–0 Villaralbo
46′SECOND HALF Cristo Atlético 1–0 Villaralbo
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+3' Cristo Atlético win: 54% at kick-off, 84% now
54′We said Cristo Atlético at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
58′Cristo Atlético score on 58′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 98–2–0
58′We said Cristo Atlético at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 98%. 2–0 · 98–2–0
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Cristo Atlético 2–0 Villaralbo
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 58' Cristo Atlético win: 54% at kick-off, 98% now
76′We said Cristo Atlético at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Cristo Atlético 2–0 Villaralbo
FTCristo Atlético 2–0 Villaralbo · Cristo Atlético win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Cristo Atlético are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Cristo Atlético 54%, draw 26%, Villaralbo 19%. Over 2.5 goals 37%, both teams to score 39%.

The AI’s read on Cristo Atlético v VillaralboBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Cristo Atlético win54%

Draw26%

Villaralbo win19%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 16:00

RoundGroup 8 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Cristo Atlético

Villaralbo

8Days since last match8

Last match: 10 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 8

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Cristo Atlético	6	+5	13
12	Villaralbo	6	+2	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cristo atlético winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

54% The market–

Us54%

We make Cristo Atlético a 54% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–0.7, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 16%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Cristo Atlético v Villaralbo~~1.46 – 0.73

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 this season · since 5 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 13 v 6~~5 v 12

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Cristo Atlético win	54%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Villaralbo win	19%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	37%	–	–
Both teams to score	39%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	64%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	18%	–	–
Cristo Atlético or draw	81%	–	–
Cristo Atlético clean sheet	48%	–	–
Villaralbo clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 16.5%

0123450 11.2 8.5 3.1 1 16.5 11.6 4.4 2 11.7 8.5 3.1 3 5.7 4.2 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Cristo Atlético down, Villaralbo across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,530 Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.8% of games this season, across 58 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 1.17 goals a meeting; 0 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Cristo Atlético at home: 1.00 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Villaralbo away: 1.50 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.46 goals for Cristo Atlético, 0.73 for Villaralbo. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~1.17

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 6

~~Both scored~~0 of 6

~~Last meetings~~CRI 2–0 VIL · VIL 0–2 CRI · VIL 0–0 CRI · CRI 0–0 VIL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 this season · since 5 Sept

CRISTO ATLÉTICO

LDWWWW0–2 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 3–0 · 3–1

VILLARALBO

LLDWDD0–1 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 4–0 · 2–2 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Cultural Leonesa II	7	+7	16
2	Burgos Promesas	7	+7	14
3	Bembibre	7	+4	14
4	Palencia CF	7	+6	13
5	Cristo Atlético	6	+5	13
6	UD Santa Marta	6	+4	13
7	La Virgen del Camino	6	+3	12
8	Atlético Mansillés	6	+2	10
9	Almazán	7	−1	10
10	Arandina	7	−1	9
11	Calasanz de Soria	7	−5	7
12	Villaralbo	6	+2	6
13	Guijuelo	5	+1	6
14	Turégano	7	−3	6
15	Unionistas II	7	−5	5
16	Colegios Diocesanos	7	−8	4
17	Salamanca II	7	−11	4
18	Mirandés II	6	−7	1