Cristo Atlético v Palencia CF prediction · Tercera División RFEF

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Cristo AtléticoDrawPalencia CF

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 17:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Cristo Atlético 49%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Cristo Atlético are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Cristo Atlético 49%, draw 26%, Palencia CF 25%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Cristo Atlético v Palencia CFBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Cristo Atlético win49%

Draw26%

Palencia CF win25%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 17:00

RoundGroup 8 · matchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Cristo Atlético

Palencia CF

7Days since last match7

Last match: 24 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 8

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cristo atlético winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

49% The market–

Us49%

We make Cristo Atlético a 49% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.0, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Cristo Atlético v Palencia CF~~1.49 – 0.96

~~Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 this season · since 20 Sept~~W6 D0 L0 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 19 v 14~~1 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Cristo Atlético win	49%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Palencia CF win	25%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	44%	–	–
Both teams to score	47%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	70%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	23%	–	–
Cristo Atlético or draw	75%	–	–
Cristo Atlético clean sheet	38%	–	–
Palencia CF clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.0%

0123450 8.7 8.5 4.0 1 13.0 12.0 5.9 2 9.5 9.0 4.3 3 4.7 4.5 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Cristo Atlético down, Palencia CF across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,540 Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.6% of games this season, across 68 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.12 goals a meeting; 2 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Cristo Atlético at home: 1.17 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Palencia CF away: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.49 goals for Cristo Atlético, 0.96 for Palencia CF. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.12

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 8

~~Both scored~~3 of 8

~~Last meetings~~CRI 1–0 PAL · PAL 2–0 CRI · PAL 0–1 CRI · CRI 1–2 PAL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 this season · since 20 Sept

CRISTO ATLÉTICO

WWWWWW1–0 · 1–0 · 3–0 · 3–1 · 2–0 · 2–0

PALENCIA CF

LWDWWD0–3 · 3–0 · 2–2 · 5–1 · 1–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Cristo Atlético	8	+9	19
2	UD Santa Marta	8	+5	17
3	Cultural Leonesa II	7	+7	16
4	Burgos Promesas	7	+7	14
5	Palencia CF	8	+6	14
6	Bembibre	8	+2	14
7	La Virgen del Camino	8	−1	13
8	Atlético Mansillés	7	+2	11
9	Arandina	8	−1	10
10	Almazán	8	−2	10
11	Guijuelo	6	+5	9
12	Villaralbo	8	+2	9
13	Turégano	8	−3	7
14	Calasanz de Soria	7	−5	7
15	Unionistas II	7	−5	5
16	Colegios Diocesanos	8	−10	4
17	Salamanca II	7	−11	4
18	Mirandés II	8	−7	3