Colegios Diocesanos v Cristo Atlético prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08

Colegios Diocesanos 0–2 Cristo Atlético CRISTO ATLÉTICO WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Cristo Atlético win~~54%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.312

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Cristo Atlético win at 54%.
1′Much as we predicted: Cristo Atlético was 54% before kick-off and our model makes it 54% now. 0–0 · 20–26–54
1′KICK-OFF Colegios Diocesanos v Cristo Atlético
4′Cristo Atlético find the net on 4′. 0–1. 0–1 · 6–14–80
4′We published Cristo Atlético at 54%. Our model now makes it 80%. 0–1 · 6–14–80
4′⚽ GOAL · 4' Colegios Diocesanos 0–1 Cristo Atlético
4′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 4' Cristo Atlético win: 54% at kick-off, 80% now
24′GOAL DISALLOWED · 24' Cristo Atlético
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Cristo Atlético win: 54% at kick-off, 49% now
25′Cristo Atlético find the net on 25′. 0–1. 0–1 · 5–15–81
25′⚽ GOAL · 25' Colegios Diocesanos 0–1 Cristo Atlético
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' Cristo Atlético win: 54% at kick-off, 81% now
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.3 we expected. 0–1 · 4–15–81
45′HALF-TIME Colegios Diocesanos 0–1 Cristo Atlético
46′SECOND HALF Colegios Diocesanos 0–1 Cristo Atlético
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 54' Cristo Atlético win: 54% at kick-off, 84% now
59′We published Cristo Atlético at 54%. Our model now makes it 85%. 0–1 · 2–13–85
62′A goal for Cristo Atlético on 61′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 0–2–98
62′⚽ GOAL · 61' Colegios Diocesanos 0–2 Cristo Atlético
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 62' Cristo Atlético win: 54% at kick-off, 98% now
63′We published Cristo Atlético at 54%. Our model now makes it 98%. 0–2 · 0–2–98
78′We published Cristo Atlético at 54%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 0–2 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Colegios Diocesanos 0–2 Cristo Atlético
FTColegios Diocesanos 0–2 Cristo Atlético · Cristo Atlético win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Cristo Atlético are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Colegios Diocesanos 20%, draw 25%, Cristo Atlético 54%. Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 42%.

The AI’s read on Colegios Diocesanos v Cristo AtléticoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Colegios Diocesanos win20%

Draw25%

Cristo Atlético win54%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundGroup 8 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Colegios Diocesanos

Cristo Atlético

7Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 8

Last match: 18 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 8

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cristo atlético winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

54% The market–

Us54%

We make Cristo Atlético a 54% chance to win. The model expects 0.8–1.5, and 0–1 is the single most likely score at 15%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Colegios Diocesanos v Cristo Atlético~~0.80 – 1.53

~~Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 this season · since 12 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W5 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 4 v 16~~16 v 1

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Colegios Diocesanos win	20%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Cristo Atlético win	54%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	41%	–	–
Both teams to score	42%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	67%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	21%	–	–
Colegios Diocesanos or draw	46%	–	–
Colegios Diocesanos clean sheet	22%	–	–
Cristo Atlético clean sheet	45%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 15.1%

0123450 9.8 15.1 11.3 5.8 2.3 1 8.1 11.5 8.8 4.5 2 3.2 4.7 3.5 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Colegios Diocesanos down, Cristo Atlético across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,534 Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.5% of games this season, across 62 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.25 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Colegios Diocesanos at home: 1.17 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Cristo Atlético away: 1.50 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.80 goals for Colegios Diocesanos, 1.53 for Cristo Atlético. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.25

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~COL 1–2 CRI · CRI 3–1 COL · COL 1–1 CRI · CRI 0–0 COL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 this season · since 12 Sept

COLEGIOS DIOCESANOS

LLDLWL0–3 · 0–3 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 2–3

CRISTO ATLÉTICO

DWWWWW1–1 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 3–0 · 3–1 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Cristo Atlético	7	+7	16
2	Cultural Leonesa II	7	+7	16
3	Burgos Promesas	7	+7	14
4	Bembibre	7	+4	14
5	UD Santa Marta	7	+4	14
6	Palencia CF	7	+6	13
7	La Virgen del Camino	7	−1	12
8	Atlético Mansillés	6	+2	10
9	Almazán	7	−1	10
10	Guijuelo	6	+5	9
11	Arandina	7	−1	9
12	Calasanz de Soria	7	−5	7
13	Villaralbo	7	0	6
14	Turégano	7	−3	6
15	Unionistas II	7	−5	5
16	Colegios Diocesanos	7	−8	4
17	Salamanca II	7	−11	4
18	Mirandés II	7	−7	2