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Colegios Diocesanos v Calasanz de Soria

Colegios Diocesanos

2–0Full time

Calasanz de Soria

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · SUN 11 OCT

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 13:41

Colegios Diocesanos 2–0 Calasanz de Soria CALASANZ DE SORIA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Calasanz de Soria win~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.701

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Calasanz de Soria win at 42%.
2′Much as we predicted: Calasanz de Soria was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 32–27–41
6′Much as we predicted: Calasanz de Soria was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 31–28–41
16′Colegios Diocesanos find the net on 13′. 1–0. 1–0 · 61–23–16
21′Colegios Diocesanos find the net on 13′. 1–0. 1–0 · 62–23–15
28′We said Calasanz de Soria at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 1–0 · 63–24–13
37′We said Calasanz de Soria at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 11%. 1–0 · 65–24–11
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Calasanz de Soria win: 42% at kick-off, 13% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Calasanz de Soria win: 42% at kick-off, 11% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Calasanz de Soria win: 42% at kick-off, 13% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Calasanz de Soria win: 42% at kick-off, 11% now
45′We said Calasanz de Soria at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 67–23–9
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Calasanz de Soria win: 42% at kick-off, 11% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Calasanz de Soria win: 42% at kick-off, 13% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Calasanz de Soria win: 42% at kick-off, 9% now
45′HALF-TIME Colegios Diocesanos 1–0 Calasanz de Soria
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Colegios Diocesanos win is now our likeliest result at 67% (was Calasanz de Soria win 9%)
46′SECOND HALF Colegios Diocesanos 1–0 Calasanz de Soria
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Calasanz de Soria win: 42% at kick-off, 9% now
46′THE CALL SWINGS · 46' Colegios Diocesanos win is now our likeliest result at 67% (was Calasanz de Soria win 9%)
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Calasanz de Soria win: 42% at kick-off, 9% now
47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' Colegios Diocesanos win is now our likeliest result at 67% (was Calasanz de Soria win 9%)
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Calasanz de Soria win: 42% at kick-off, 9% now
48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' Colegios Diocesanos win is now our likeliest result at 67% (was Calasanz de Soria win 9%)
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Calasanz de Soria win: 42% at kick-off, 9% now
49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Colegios Diocesanos win is now our likeliest result at 67% (was Calasanz de Soria win 9%)
73′⚽ GOAL · 72' Colegios Diocesanos 2–0 Calasanz de Soria
FTFULL TIME Colegios Diocesanos 2–0 Calasanz de Soria
FTColegios Diocesanos 2–0 Calasanz de Soria · Calasanz de Soria win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Colegios Diocesanos win32%

Draw26%

Calasanz de Soria win42%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 11:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Colegios Diocesanos

Calasanz de Soria

8Days since last match8

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Calasanz de Soria	5	−2	7
18	Colegios Diocesanos	5	−9	1

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · calasanz de soria winPublished 11 Oct 11:02

42% The market–

Us42%

We make Calasanz de Soria a 42% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Colegios Diocesanos win	32%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Calasanz de Soria win	42%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	45%	–	–
Both teams to score	49%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	70%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	24%	–	–
Colegios Diocesanos or draw	58%	–	–
Colegios Diocesanos clean sheet	27%	–	–
Calasanz de Soria clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.2%

0123450 8.5 11.6 7.5 3.4 1 9.9 12.2 8.2 3.7 2 5.5 7.1 4.7 2.1 3 2.1 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Colegios Diocesanos down, Calasanz de Soria across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,522 Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.0% of games this season, across 50 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Colegios Diocesanos at home: 0.83 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Calasanz de Soria away: 0.50 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 2).

What the model expects

1.14 goals for Colegios Diocesanos, 1.34 for Calasanz de Soria. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8

COLEGIOS DIOCESANOS

LLLLDL1–2 · 0–2 · 0–3 · 0–3 · 1–1 · 0–1

CALASANZ DE SORIA

WLWLD1–0 · 1–4 · 3–2 · 0–1 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Burgos Promesas	5	+8	13
2	Cristo Atlético	6	+5	13
3	Cultural Leonesa II	6	+5	13
4	Bembibre	6	+4	13
5	UD Santa Marta	5	+4	12
6	La Virgen del Camino	6	+3	12
7	Atlético Mansillés	5	+3	10
8	Arandina	6	−1	8
9	Palencia CF	5	+1	7
10	Almazán	6	−2	7
11	Calasanz de Soria	5	−2	7
12	Villaralbo	6	+2	6
13	Guijuelo	5	+1	6
14	Salamanca II	5	−5	4
15	Turégano	6	−4	3
16	Unionistas II	6	−6	2
17	Mirandés II	6	−7	1
18	Colegios Diocesanos	5	−9	1