Calasanz de Soria v Palencia CF prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:42

Calasanz de Soria 0–1 Palencia CF PALENCIA CF WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Palencia CF win~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.468

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 8 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Palencia CF win at 44%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Palencia CF 44% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 31–24–44
1′KICK-OFF Calasanz de Soria v Palencia CF
45′HALF-TIME Calasanz de Soria 0–0 Palencia CF
46′SECOND HALF Calasanz de Soria 0–0 Palencia CF
55′Palencia CF find the net on 55′. 0–1. 0–1 · 5–19–76
55′We said Palencia CF at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 76%. 0–1 · 5–19–76
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Calasanz de Soria 0–1 Palencia CF
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 55' Palencia CF win: 44% at kick-off, 76% now
66′We said Palencia CF at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 0–1 · 3–17–80
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 73' Palencia CF win: 44% at kick-off, 84% now
75′We said Palencia CF at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 0–1 · 2–13–85
81′We said Palencia CF at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 0–1 · 1–10–90
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' Palencia CF win: 44% at kick-off, 94% now
88′We said Palencia CF at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 0–1 · 0–5–95
FTFULL TIME Calasanz de Soria 0–1 Palencia CF
FTCalasanz de Soria 0–1 Palencia CF · Palencia CF win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Palencia CF are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Calasanz de Soria 31%, draw 24%, Palencia CF 44%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Calasanz de Soria v Palencia CFBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Calasanz de Soria win31%

Draw24%

Palencia CF win44%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 16:00

RoundGroup 8 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Calasanz de Soria

Palencia CF

6Days since last match6

Last match: 11 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 8

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Palencia CF	6	+5	10
11	Calasanz de Soria	6	−4	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · palencia cf winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 04:05 · locked at kick-off

44% The market–

Us44%

We make Palencia CF a 44% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.6, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Calasanz de Soria v Palencia CF~~1.26 – 1.56

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 this season · since 6 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 7 v 10~~11 v 7

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Palencia CF win

Published at 40%, 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Calasanz de Soria win	31%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Palencia CF win	44%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	53%	–	–
Both teams to score	55%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	76%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	31%	–	–
Calasanz de Soria or draw	56%	–	–
Calasanz de Soria clean sheet	22%	–	–
Palencia CF clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.3%

0123450 6.1 9.6 7.2 3.8 1 8.0 11.3 8.7 4.6 2 4.9 7.2 5.5 2.9 3 2.1 3.1 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Calasanz de Soria down, Palencia CF across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,525 Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.3% of games this season, across 53 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Calasanz de Soria at home: 2.00 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 3). Palencia CF away: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.26 goals for Calasanz de Soria, 1.56 for Palencia CF. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 this season · since 6 Sept

CALASANZ DE SORIA

WLWLDL1–0 · 1–4 · 3–2 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 0–2

PALENCIA CF

WLLWDW2–0 · 0–1 · 0–3 · 3–0 · 2–2 · 5–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Burgos Promesas	6	+8	14
2	Cristo Atlético	6	+5	13
3	Cultural Leonesa II	6	+5	13
4	Bembibre	6	+4	13
5	UD Santa Marta	6	+4	13
6	La Virgen del Camino	6	+3	12
7	Palencia CF	6	+5	10
8	Atlético Mansillés	5	+3	10
9	Arandina	6	−1	8
10	Almazán	6	−2	7
11	Calasanz de Soria	6	−4	7
12	Villaralbo	6	+2	6
13	Guijuelo	5	+1	6
14	Colegios Diocesanos	6	−7	4
15	Salamanca II	6	−9	4
16	Turégano	6	−4	3
17	Unionistas II	6	−6	2
18	Mirandés II	6	−7	1