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Burgos Promesas v UD Santa Marta

Burgos Promesas

1–1Full time

UD Santa Marta

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · SUN 11 OCT

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 13:41

Burgos Promesas 1–1 UD Santa Marta BURGOS PROMESAS WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Burgos Promesas win~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.815

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Burgos Promesas win at 46%.
2′Little has changed for our model: Burgos Promesas 46% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 45–28–26
4′Little has changed for our model: Burgos Promesas 46% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 45–29–26
19′14′ and it is 1–0: Burgos Promesas have scored. 1–0 · 74–18–8
26′14′ and it is 1–0: Burgos Promesas have scored. 1–0 · 75–18–7
34′UD Santa Marta find the net on 28′. 1–1. 1–1 · 39–37–24
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Burgos Promesas win: 46% at kick-off, 39% now
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Burgos Promesas win: 46% at kick-off, 75% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Burgos Promesas win: 46% at kick-off, 75% now
44′UD Santa Marta find the net on 28′. 1–1. 1–1 · 35–42–23
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Burgos Promesas win: 46% at kick-off, 39% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Burgos Promesas win: 46% at kick-off, 75% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Burgos Promesas win: 46% at kick-off, 35% now
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Burgos Promesas win 35%)
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Burgos Promesas win: 46% at kick-off, 35% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Burgos Promesas win: 46% at kick-off, 39% now
45′HALF-TIME Burgos Promesas 1–1 UD Santa Marta
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Burgos Promesas win 35%)
46′SECOND HALF Burgos Promesas 1–1 UD Santa Marta
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Burgos Promesas win: 46% at kick-off, 35% now
46′THE CALL SWINGS · 46' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Burgos Promesas win 35%)
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Burgos Promesas win: 46% at kick-off, 35% now
47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Burgos Promesas win 35%)
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Burgos Promesas win: 46% at kick-off, 35% now
48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Burgos Promesas win 35%)
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Burgos Promesas win: 46% at kick-off, 35% now
49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Burgos Promesas win 35%)
FTFULL TIME Burgos Promesas 1–1 UD Santa Marta
FTBurgos Promesas 1–1 UD Santa Marta · Burgos Promesas win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Burgos Promesas win46%

Draw27%

UD Santa Marta win27%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 11:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Burgos Promesas

UD Santa Marta

8Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Burgos Promesas	5	+8	13
5	UD Santa Marta	5	+4	12

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · burgos promesas winPublished 11 Oct 11:02

46% The market–

Us46%

We make Burgos Promesas a 46% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.0, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Burgos Promesas win	46%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
UD Santa Marta win	27%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	40%	–	–
Both teams to score	45%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	66%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	20%	–	–
Burgos Promesas or draw	73%	–	–
Burgos Promesas clean sheet	39%	–	–
UD Santa Marta clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.8%

0123450 10.1 9.9 4.6 1 13.8 12.4 6.0 2 9.0 8.4 4.0 3 4.1 3.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Burgos Promesas down, UD Santa Marta across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,522 Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.0% of games this season, across 50 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 1.75 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Burgos Promesas at home: 1.67 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). UD Santa Marta away: 1.17 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.34 goals for Burgos Promesas, 0.95 for UD Santa Marta. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~1.75

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~BUR 1–1 UDS · UDS 0–0 BUR · BUR 1–1 UDS · UDS 1–2 BUR

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8

BURGOS PROMESAS

DWWWDW1–1 · 1–0 · 3–0 · 3–0 · 0–0 · 2–1

UD SANTA MARTA

LWWWLW0–2 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 0–3 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Burgos Promesas	5	+8	13
2	Cristo Atlético	6	+5	13
3	Cultural Leonesa II	6	+5	13
4	Bembibre	6	+4	13
5	UD Santa Marta	5	+4	12
6	La Virgen del Camino	6	+3	12
7	Atlético Mansillés	5	+3	10
8	Arandina	6	−1	8
9	Palencia CF	5	+1	7
10	Almazán	6	−2	7
11	Calasanz de Soria	5	−2	7
12	Villaralbo	6	+2	6
13	Guijuelo	5	+1	6
14	Salamanca II	5	−5	4
15	Turégano	6	−4	3
16	Unionistas II	6	−6	2
17	Mirandés II	6	−7	1
18	Colegios Diocesanos	5	−9	1