Burgos Promesas v Salamanca II prediction · Tercera División RFEF

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Burgos PromesasDrawSalamanca II

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 11:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Burgos Promesas 63%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Burgos Promesas are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Burgos Promesas 63%, draw 22%, Salamanca II 15%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on Burgos Promesas v Salamanca IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Burgos Promesas win63%

Draw22%

Salamanca II win15%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 11:00

RoundGroup 8 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Burgos Promesas

Salamanca II

7Days since last match8

Last match: 18 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 8

Last match: 17 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 8

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Burgos Promesas	7	+7	14
17	Salamanca II	7	−11	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · burgos promesas winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

63% The market–

Us63%

We make Burgos Promesas a 63% chance to win. The model expects 1.9–0.8, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Burgos Promesas v Salamanca II~~1.86 – 0.75

~~Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 this season · since 12 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 14 v 4~~3 v 17

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Burgos Promesas win	63%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Salamanca II win	15%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	48%	–	–
Both teams to score	44%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	73%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	27%	–	–
Burgos Promesas or draw	85%	–	–
Burgos Promesas clean sheet	48%	–	–
Salamanca II clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.9%

0123450 7.6 5.9 2.2 1 13.9 9.9 3.8 2 12.4 9.1 3.5 3 7.7 5.7 2.2 4 3.7 2.7 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Burgos Promesas down, Salamanca II across0–5 goals a side shown (98.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,534 Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.5% of games this season, across 62 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Burgos Promesas at home: 1.67 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Salamanca II away: 0.83 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.86 goals for Burgos Promesas, 0.75 for Salamanca II. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 this season · since 12 Sept

BURGOS PROMESAS

WWDWDL3–0 · 3–0 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 0–1

SALAMANCA II

DLLWLL1–1 · 3–4 · 0–4 · 1–0 · 1–5 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Cristo Atlético	7	+7	16
2	Cultural Leonesa II	7	+7	16
3	Burgos Promesas	7	+7	14
4	Bembibre	7	+4	14
5	UD Santa Marta	7	+4	14
6	Palencia CF	7	+6	13
7	La Virgen del Camino	7	−1	12
8	Atlético Mansillés	6	+2	10
9	Almazán	7	−1	10
10	Guijuelo	6	+5	9
11	Arandina	7	−1	9
12	Calasanz de Soria	7	−5	7
13	Villaralbo	7	0	6
14	Turégano	7	−3	6
15	Unionistas II	7	−5	5
16	Colegios Diocesanos	7	−8	4
17	Salamanca II	7	−11	4
18	Mirandés II	7	−7	2