Bembibre v Arandina prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:42

Bembibre 1–1 Arandina BEMBIBRE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Bembibre win~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.820

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Bembibre win at 40%.
1′Much as we predicted: Bembibre was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–26–33
1′KICK-OFF Bembibre v Arandina
22′Arandina score on 22′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 14–23–63
22′We said Bembibre at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–23–63
22′⚽ GOAL · 22' Bembibre 0–1 Arandina
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' Bembibre win: 40% at kick-off, 14% now
22′THE CALL SWINGS · 22' Arandina win is now our likeliest result at 63% (was Bembibre win 14%)
25′PENALTY MISSED · 24' Bembibre
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.5 we expected. 0–1 · 13–23–64
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Bembibre win: 40% at kick-off, 10% now
44′We said Bembibre at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–23–68
45′HALF-TIME Bembibre 0–1 Arandina
46′SECOND HALF Bembibre 0–1 Arandina
64′We said Bembibre at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–20–76
75′Bembibre find the net on 74′. 1–1. 1–1 · 17–69–15
75′We said Bembibre at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 17%. 1–1 · 17–69–15
75′⚽ GOAL · 74' Bembibre 1–1 Arandina
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' Bembibre win: 40% at kick-off, 17% now
75′THE CALL SWINGS · 75' Draw is now our likeliest result at 69% (was Arandina win 15%)
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Bembibre win: 40% at kick-off, 10% now
FTFULL TIME Bembibre 1–1 Arandina
FTBembibre 1–1 Arandina · Bembibre win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Bembibre are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Bembibre 40%, draw 26%, Arandina 33%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Bembibre v ArandinaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Bembibre win40%

Draw26%

Arandina win33%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 16:00

RoundGroup 8 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Bembibre

Arandina

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 8

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Bembibre	6	+4	13
9	Arandina	6	−1	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bembibre winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

40% The market–

Us40%

We make Bembibre a 40% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Bembibre v Arandina~~1.34 – 1.19

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 this season · since 5 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 13 v 8~~4 v 9

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bembibre win	40%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Arandina win	33%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	46%	–	–
Both teams to score	50%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	71%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	25%	–	–
Bembibre or draw	67%	–	–
Bembibre clean sheet	31%	–	–
Arandina clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.3%

0123450 8.0 9.8 5.7 2.3 1 11.0 12.3 7.4 3.0 2 7.2 8.3 4.9 3 3.2 3.7 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bembibre down, Arandina across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,525 Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.3% of games this season, across 53 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.12 goals a meeting; 2 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Bembibre at home: 1.67 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Arandina away: 1.17 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.34 goals for Bembibre, 1.19 for Arandina. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.12

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 8

~~Both scored~~3 of 8

~~Last meetings~~ARA 3–3 BEM · BEM 1–1 ARA · BEM 1–0 ARA · ARA 2–0 BEM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 this season · since 5 Sept

BEMBIBRE

WDLWWW2–0 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 2–1

ARANDINA

LDWWDL0–1 · 1–1 · 4–3 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Burgos Promesas	6	+8	14
2	Cristo Atlético	6	+5	13
3	Cultural Leonesa II	6	+5	13
4	Bembibre	6	+4	13
5	UD Santa Marta	6	+4	13
6	La Virgen del Camino	6	+3	12
7	Palencia CF	6	+5	10
8	Atlético Mansillés	5	+3	10
9	Arandina	6	−1	8
10	Almazán	6	−2	7
11	Calasanz de Soria	6	−4	7
12	Villaralbo	6	+2	6
13	Guijuelo	5	+1	6
14	Colegios Diocesanos	6	−7	4
15	Salamanca II	6	−9	4
16	Turégano	6	−4	3
17	Unionistas II	6	−6	2
18	Mirandés II	6	−7	1