Atlético Mansillés v Unionistas II prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10

Atlético Mansillés 1–2 Unionistas II ATLÉTICO MANSILLÉS WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Atlético Mansillés win~~52%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.989

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Atlético Mansillés win at 52%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Atlético Mansillés 52% before kick-off, 52% now. 0–0 · 52–28–20
1′KICK-OFF Atlético Mansillés v Unionistas II
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' Atlético Mansillés win: 52% at kick-off, 42% now
39′We said Atlético Mansillés at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 40%. 0–0 · 40–42–18
42′Unionistas II score on 41′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 12–27–61
42′We said Atlético Mansillés at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 12%. 0–1 · 12–27–61
42′The goal count is tracking the 2.0 we expected. 0–1 · 12–27–61
42′⚽ GOAL · 41' Atlético Mansillés 0–1 Unionistas II
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Atlético Mansillés win: 52% at kick-off, 12% now
42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' Unionistas II win is now our likeliest result at 61% (was Atlético Mansillés win 12%)
45′45′: J. Torres on the scoresheet for Unionistas II, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 11–27–62
45′HALF-TIME Atlético Mansillés 0–1 Unionistas II
46′SECOND HALF Atlético Mansillés 0–1 Unionistas II
50′We said Atlético Mansillés at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–26–65
66′We said Atlético Mansillés at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–21–74
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Atlético Mansillés win: 52% at kick-off, 2% now
81′Unionistas II find the net on 81′. 0–2. 0–2 · 0–1–99
81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Atlético Mansillés 0–2 Unionistas II
82′A goal for Atlético Mansillés on 82′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 1–10–89
82′3 goals already, more than the 2.0 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 1–10–89
82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Atlético Mansillés 1–2 Unionistas II
FTFULL TIME Atlético Mansillés 1–2 Unionistas II
FTAtlético Mansillés 1–2 Unionistas II · Atlético Mansillés win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Atlético Mansillés are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Atlético Mansillés 52%, draw 28%, Unionistas II 20%. Over 2.5 goals 33%, both teams to score 36%.

The AI’s read on Atlético Mansillés v Unionistas IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Atlético Mansillés win52%

Draw28%

Unionistas II win20%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:30

RoundGroup 8 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Atlético Mansillés

Unionistas II

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 8

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Atlético Mansillés	5	+3	10
17	Unionistas II	6	−6	2

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · atlético mansillés winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

52% The market–

Us52%

We make Atlético Mansillés a 52% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–0.7, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 18%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Atlético Mansillés v Unionistas II~~1.33 – 0.70

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 this season · since 5 Sept~~W3 D1 L1 · W0 D2 L4

~~Table places · points 10 v 2~~8 v 17

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Atlético Mansillés win	52%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Unionistas II win	20%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	33%	–	–
Both teams to score	36%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	60%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	15%	–	–
Atlético Mansillés or draw	80%	–	–
Atlético Mansillés clean sheet	50%	–	–
Unionistas II clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 17.7%

0123450 13.2 9.5 3.2 1 17.7 11.8 4.2 2 11.5 7.9 2.8 3 5.2 3.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Atlético Mansillés down, Unionistas II across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,525 Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.3% of games this season, across 53 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Atlético Mansillés at home: 1.00 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Unionistas II away: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.33 goals for Atlético Mansillés, 0.70 for Unionistas II. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~UNI 2–2 ATL · ATL 0–0 UNI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 this season · since 5 Sept

ATLÉTICO MANSILLÉS

WDWWL2–1 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 0–1

UNIONISTAS II

LDLDLL1–2 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 0–0 · 0–3 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Burgos Promesas	6	+8	14
2	Cristo Atlético	6	+5	13
3	Cultural Leonesa II	6	+5	13
4	Bembibre	6	+4	13
5	UD Santa Marta	6	+4	13
6	La Virgen del Camino	6	+3	12
7	Palencia CF	6	+5	10
8	Atlético Mansillés	5	+3	10
9	Arandina	6	−1	8
10	Almazán	6	−2	7
11	Calasanz de Soria	6	−4	7
12	Villaralbo	6	+2	6
13	Guijuelo	5	+1	6
14	Colegios Diocesanos	6	−7	4
15	Salamanca II	6	−9	4
16	Turégano	6	−4	3
17	Unionistas II	6	−6	2
18	Mirandés II	6	−7	1