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Arandina v Cristo Atlético

Arandina

1–3Full time

Cristo Atlético

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 20:02

Arandina 1–3 Cristo Atlético CRISTO ATLÉTICO WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Cristo Atlético win~~36%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.609

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Cristo Atlético win at 36%.
2′Much as we predicted: Cristo Atlético was 36% before kick-off and our model makes it 36% now. 0–0 · 35–29–36
7′Much as we predicted: Cristo Atlético was 36% before kick-off and our model makes it 35% now. 0–0 · 34–30–35
22′A goal for Cristo Atlético on 19′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 11–22–68
31′30′ and it is 0–2: Cristo Atlético have scored. 0–2 · 2–7–91
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Cristo Atlético win: 36% at kick-off, 91% now
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Cristo Atlético win: 36% at kick-off, 68% now
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Cristo Atlético win: 36% at kick-off, 91% now
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Cristo Atlético win: 36% at kick-off, 68% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Cristo Atlético win: 36% at kick-off, 68% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Cristo Atlético win: 36% at kick-off, 91% now
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Cristo Atlético win: 36% at kick-off, 68% now
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Cristo Atlético win: 36% at kick-off, 91% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Cristo Atlético win: 36% at kick-off, 91% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Cristo Atlético win: 36% at kick-off, 68% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Cristo Atlético win: 36% at kick-off, 68% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Cristo Atlético win: 36% at kick-off, 91% now
45′30′ and it is 0–2: Cristo Atlético have scored. 0–2 · 1–6–93
45′We published Cristo Atlético at 36%. Our model now makes it 93%. 0–2 · 1–6–93
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Cristo Atlético win: 36% at kick-off, 91% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Cristo Atlético win: 36% at kick-off, 68% now
45′HALF-TIME Arandina 0–2 Cristo Atlético
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Cristo Atlético win: 36% at kick-off, 93% now
46′SECOND HALF Arandina 0–2 Cristo Atlético
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Arandina 1–3 Cristo Atlético
68′⚽ GOAL · 19' Arandina 1–3 Cristo Atlético
68′⚽ GOAL · 30' Arandina 1–3 Cristo Atlético
68′⚽ GOAL · 66' Arandina 1–3 Cristo Atlético
71′⚽ GOAL · 19' Arandina 1–3 Cristo Atlético
71′⚽ GOAL · 30' Arandina 1–3 Cristo Atlético
71′⚽ GOAL · 66' Arandina 1–3 Cristo Atlético
FTFULL TIME Arandina 1–3 Cristo Atlético
FTArandina 1–3 Cristo Atlético · Cristo Atlético win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Arandina win35%

Draw28%

Cristo Atlético win36%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 17:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cristo atlético winPublished 10 Oct 17:01

36% The market–

Us36%

We make Cristo Atlético a 36% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Arandina win	35%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Cristo Atlético win	36%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	38%	–	–
Both teams to score	44%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	65%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	19%	–	–
Arandina or draw	64%	–	–
Arandina clean sheet	33%	–	–
Cristo Atlético clean sheet	34%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.9%

0123450 10.8 12.5 6.8 2.6 1 12.2 12.9 7.4 2.8 2 6.6 7.2 4.0 3 2.4 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Arandina down, Cristo Atlético across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,516 Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.2% of games this season, across 44 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 1.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Arandina at home: 1.83 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Cristo Atlético away: 1.33 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.10 goals for Arandina, 1.12 for Cristo Atlético. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 4

~~Both scored~~0 of 4

~~Last meetings~~ARA 0–2 CRI · CRI 1–0 ARA · CRI 1–0 ARA · ARA 2–0 CRI

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8

ARANDINA

LLDWWD0–2 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 4–3 · 1–0 · 1–1

CRISTO ATLÉTICO

WLDWWW1–0 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Burgos Promesas	5	+8	13
2	UD Santa Marta	5	+4	12
3	Atlético Mansillés	4	+4	10
4	Bembibre	5	+3	10
5	Cristo Atlético	5	+3	10
6	Cultural Leonesa II	5	+2	10
7	La Virgen del Camino	5	+2	9
8	Arandina	5	+1	8
9	Almazán	5	+1	7
10	Palencia CF	5	+1	7
11	Calasanz de Soria	5	−2	7
12	Villaralbo	5	+2	5
13	Salamanca II	5	−5	4
14	Guijuelo	4	−1	3
15	Turégano	5	−4	2
16	Unionistas II	5	−5	2
17	Mirandés II	5	−5	1
18	Colegios Diocesanos	5	−9	1