Arandina v Atlético Mansillés prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 19:48

Arandina 2–2 Atlético Mansillés ARANDINA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Arandina win~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.749

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Arandina win at 41%.
1′Much as we predicted: Arandina was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 41–30–29
1′KICK-OFF Arandina v Atlético Mansillés
33′THE CALL SWINGS · 33' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Arandina win 37%)
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Arandina win: 41% at kick-off, 31% now
45′Atlético Mansillés score on 45′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 31–46–23
45′⚽ GOAL · 45+14' Arandina 1–1 Atlético Mansillés
45′HALF-TIME Arandina 1–1 Atlético Mansillés
46′Arandina find the net on 46′. 2–1. 2–1 · 77–18–5
46′⚽ GOAL · 46' Arandina 2–1 Atlético Mansillés
46′SECOND HALF Arandina 2–1 Atlético Mansillés
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' Arandina win: 41% at kick-off, 77% now
46′THE CALL SWINGS · 46' Arandina win is now our likeliest result at 77% (was Draw 46%)
47′We published Arandina at 41%. Our model now makes it 77%. 2–1 · 77–18–4
47′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.0 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 77–18–4
50′We said Arandina at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–49–22 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
50′A goal for Atlético Mansillés on 50′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 29–49–22
50′4 goals already, more than the 2.0 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 29–49–22
50′⚽ GOAL · 50' Arandina 2–2 Atlético Mansillés
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Arandina win: 41% at kick-off, 29% now
50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Draw is now our likeliest result at 49% (was Arandina win 78%)
61′We said Arandina at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 2–2 · 24–58–18
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Arandina win: 41% at kick-off, 21% now
69′We said Arandina at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 2–2 · 19–66–15
FTFULL TIME Arandina 2–2 Atlético Mansillés
FTArandina 2–2 Atlético Mansillés · Arandina win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Arandina are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Arandina 41%, draw 30%, Atlético Mansillés 29%. Over 2.5 goals 33%, both teams to score 40%.

The AI’s read on Arandina v Atlético MansillésBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 03:48 · locked at kick-off

Arandina win41%

Draw30%

Atlético Mansillés win29%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 17:00

RoundGroup 8 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Arandina

Atlético Mansillés

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 8

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Atlético Mansillés	6	+2	10
11	Arandina	7	−1	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · arandina winFirst published 18 Oct 03:48 · locked at kick-off

41% The market–

Us41%

We make Arandina a 41% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–0.9, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 15%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Arandina v Atlético Mansillés~~1.14 – 0.90

~~Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D3 L1 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 9 v 10~~11 v 8

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Arandina win	41%	–	–
Draw	30%	–	–
Atlético Mansillés win	29%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	33%	–	–
Both teams to score	40%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	60%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	15%	–	–
Arandina or draw	71%	–	–
Arandina clean sheet	41%	–	–
Atlético Mansillés clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.1%

0123450 13.1 12.0 5.3 1 15.1 12.9 5.9 2 8.4 7.4 3.3 3 3.2 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Arandina down, Atlético Mansillés across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,534 Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.5% of games this season, across 62 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 1.25 goals a meeting; 0 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Arandina at home: 1.83 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Atlético Mansillés away: 1.33 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.14 goals for Arandina, 0.90 for Atlético Mansillés. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~1.25

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~ATL 1–1 ARA · ARA 0–0 ATL · ATL 0–2 ARA · ARA 1–0 ATL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 this season · since 5 Sept

ARANDINA

DWWDLD1–1 · 4–3 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 1–1

ATLÉTICO MANSILLÉS

WDWWLL2–1 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Cristo Atlético	7	+7	16
2	Cultural Leonesa II	7	+7	16
3	Burgos Promesas	7	+7	14
4	Bembibre	7	+4	14
5	UD Santa Marta	7	+4	14
6	Palencia CF	7	+6	13
7	La Virgen del Camino	7	−1	12
8	Atlético Mansillés	6	+2	10
9	Almazán	7	−1	10
10	Guijuelo	6	+5	9
11	Arandina	7	−1	9
12	Calasanz de Soria	7	−5	7
13	Villaralbo	7	0	6
14	Turégano	7	−3	6
15	Unionistas II	7	−5	5
16	Colegios Diocesanos	7	−8	4
17	Salamanca II	7	−11	4
18	Mirandés II	7	−7	2