Almazán v Burgos Promesas prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 13:36

Almazán 1–0 Burgos Promesas ALMAZÁN WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Almazán win~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.563

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Almazán win at 39%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Almazán 39% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 39–27–34
1′KICK-OFF Almazán v Burgos Promesas
14′A goal for Almazán on 13′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 67–21–12
14′We said Almazán at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 67%. 1–0 · 67–21–12
14′⚽ GOAL · 13' Almazán 1–0 Burgos Promesas
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 14' Almazán win: 39% at kick-off, 67% now
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Almazán win: 39% at kick-off, 69% now
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.4 we expected. 1–0 · 69–21–10
31′We said Almazán at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 1–0 · 70–21–9
45′HALF-TIME Almazán 1–0 Burgos Promesas
46′SECOND HALF Almazán 1–0 Burgos Promesas
52′We said Almazán at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–20–6
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 63' Almazán win: 39% at kick-off, 79% now
65′We said Almazán at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
74′We said Almazán at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 79' Almazán win: 39% at kick-off, 89% now
80′We said Almazán at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
87′We said Almazán at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+4' Almazán win: 39% at kick-off, 99% now
FTFULL TIME Almazán 1–0 Burgos Promesas
FTAlmazán 1–0 Burgos Promesas · Almazán win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Almazán are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Almazán 39%, draw 27%, Burgos Promesas 34%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Almazán v Burgos PromesasBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Almazán win39%

Draw27%

Burgos Promesas win34%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 11:00

RoundGroup 8 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Almazán

Burgos Promesas

8Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 8

Last match: 11 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 8

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Burgos Promesas	6	+8	14
10	Almazán	6	−2	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · almazán winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

39% The market–

Us39%

We make Almazán a 39% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Almazán v Burgos Promesas~~1.25 – 1.15

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 this season · since 6 Sept~~W1 D4 L1 · W4 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 7 v 14~~10 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Almazán win	39%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Burgos Promesas win	34%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	43%	–	–
Both teams to score	48%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	68%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	22%	–	–
Almazán or draw	66%	–	–
Almazán clean sheet	32%	–	–
Burgos Promesas clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.6%

0123450 9.2 10.8 6.0 2.3 1 11.7 12.6 7.3 2.8 2 7.1 7.9 4.5 3 3.0 3.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Almazán down, Burgos Promesas across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,530 Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.8% of games this season, across 58 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.25 goals a meeting; 0 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Almazán at home: 2.00 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Burgos Promesas away: 1.17 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.25 goals for Almazán, 1.15 for Burgos Promesas. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.25

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~ALM 0–1 BUR · BUR 1–1 ALM · ALM 1–0 BUR · BUR 1–0 ALM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 this season · since 6 Sept

ALMAZÁN

WDDDDL2–1 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 2–5

BURGOS PROMESAS

WWWDWD1–0 · 3–0 · 3–0 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Cultural Leonesa II	7	+7	16
2	Burgos Promesas	6	+8	14
3	Bembibre	7	+4	14
4	Palencia CF	7	+6	13
5	Cristo Atlético	6	+5	13
6	UD Santa Marta	6	+4	13
7	La Virgen del Camino	6	+3	12
8	Atlético Mansillés	6	+2	10
9	Arandina	7	−1	9
10	Almazán	6	−2	7
11	Calasanz de Soria	7	−5	7
12	Villaralbo	6	+2	6
13	Guijuelo	5	+1	6
14	Turégano	7	−3	6
15	Unionistas II	7	−5	5
16	Colegios Diocesanos	7	−8	4
17	Salamanca II	7	−11	4
18	Mirandés II	6	−7	1