Villanueva Pardillo v Torrejón prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 13:09

Villanueva Pardillo 1–1 Torrejón TORREJÓN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Torrejón win~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.840

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 7 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Torrejón win at 43%.
1′KICK-OFF Villanueva Pardillo v Torrejón
2′Little has changed for our model: Torrejón 43% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 32–26–43
15′Little has changed for our model: Torrejón 43% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 31–29–41
41′⚽ GOAL · 40' Villanueva Pardillo 0–1 Torrejón
45′HALF-TIME Villanueva Pardillo 0–1 Torrejón
45′⚽ GOAL · 39' Villanueva Pardillo 0–1 Torrejón · M. Reguilon
46′SECOND HALF Villanueva Pardillo 0–1 Torrejón
82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Villanueva Pardillo 1–1 Torrejón
FTFULL TIME Villanueva Pardillo 1–1 Torrejón
FTVillanueva Pardillo 1–1 Torrejón · Torrejón win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Villanueva Pardillo win32%

Draw25%

Torrejón win43%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 10:30

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Villanueva Pardillo

Torrejón

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Torrejón	5	+1	6
17	Villanueva Pardillo	5	−8	3

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · torrejón winPublished 11 Oct 10:36

43% The market–

Us43%

We make Torrejón a 43% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.5, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Villanueva Pardillo win	32%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Torrejón win	43%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	51%	–	–
Both teams to score	54%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	75%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	29%	–	–
Villanueva Pardillo or draw	57%	–	–
Villanueva Pardillo clean sheet	23%	–	–
Torrejón clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.0%

0123450 6.9 9.9 7.2 3.6 1 8.3 12.0 8.7 4.3 2 5.1 7.3 5.4 2.7 3 2.1 3.1 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Villanueva Pardillo down, Torrejón across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,631 Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.2% of games this season, across 47 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 2.75 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Villanueva Pardillo at home: 1.67 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Torrejón away: 1.33 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.23 goals for Villanueva Pardillo, 1.47 for Torrejón. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~2.75

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~TOR 3–1 VIL · VIL 2–3 TOR · VIL 0–0 TOR · TOR 1–1 VIL

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7

VILLANUEVA PARDILLO

WLLLWL3–0 · 1–3 · 0–2 · 1–5 · 3–2 · 0–1

TORREJÓN

LLWLLW0–3 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 1–3 · 0–1 · 4–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Colonia Moscardó	6	+9	12
2	Cala Pozuelo	6	+2	12
3	Trival Valderas	5	+4	11
4	Móstoles	5	+4	11
5	Las Rozas	5	+5	10
6	Galapagar	5	+2	8
7	RC Alcobendas	6	+1	8
8	Fuenlabrada	5	+1	8
9	Leganés II	5	+3	7
10	Torrejón	5	+1	6
11	Unión Adarve	5	−2	6
12	Pozuelo Alarcón	5	−3	6
13	Parla Escuela	5	−1	5
14	Alcobendas Sport	5	−1	5
15	Real Aranjuez	6	−4	5
16	SS Reyes II	5	−6	3
17	Villanueva Pardillo	5	−8	3
18	Rayo Vallecano II	5	−7	1