Villanueva Pardillo v Móstoles prediction · Tercera División RFEF

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Villanueva PardilloDrawMóstoles

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 10:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Móstoles 47%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Móstoles are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Villanueva Pardillo 27%, draw 26%, Móstoles 47%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Villanueva Pardillo v MóstolesBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Villanueva Pardillo win27%

Draw26%

Móstoles win47%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 10:30

RoundGroup 7 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Villanueva Pardillo

Móstoles

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Móstoles	7	+6	14
18	Villanueva Pardillo	7	−12	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · móstoles winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

47% The market–

Us47%

We make Móstoles a 47% chance to win. The model expects 1.0–1.5, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Villanueva Pardillo v Móstoles~~1.05 – 1.50

~~Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 this season · since 13 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 4 v 14~~18 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Villanueva Pardillo win	27%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Móstoles win	47%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	47%	–	–
Both teams to score	50%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	72%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	25%	–	–
Villanueva Pardillo or draw	53%	–	–
Villanueva Pardillo clean sheet	23%	–	–
Móstoles clean sheet	36%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.2%

0123450 8.2 11.8 8.8 4.4 1 8.2 12.2 9.0 4.5 2 4.3 6.3 4.7 2.4 3 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Villanueva Pardillo down, Móstoles across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,650 Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.6% of games this season, across 66 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Villanueva Pardillo at home: 1.83 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Móstoles away: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.05 goals for Villanueva Pardillo, 1.50 for Móstoles. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~MOS 3–5 VIL · VIL 1–2 MOS · MOS 2–0 VIL · VIL 0–3 MOS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 this season · since 13 Sept

VILLANUEVA PARDILLO

LLWLDL0–2 · 1–5 · 3–2 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 0–4

MÓSTOLES

WWWDLW3–1 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Las Rozas	7	+7	14
2	Móstoles	7	+6	14
3	Colonia Moscardó	7	+9	13
4	Cala Pozuelo	7	+2	13
5	Unión Adarve	7	+3	12
6	Trival Valderas	7	+3	12
7	Pozuelo Alarcón	7	−1	12
8	Galapagar	7	0	11
9	Torrejón	7	+5	10
10	Leganés II	7	+3	10
11	Fuenlabrada	7	0	9
12	RC Alcobendas	7	0	8
13	Alcobendas Sport	7	−2	6
14	Real Aranjuez	7	−4	6
15	Parla Escuela	7	−5	6
16	SS Reyes II	7	−7	6
17	Rayo Vallecano II	7	−7	4
18	Villanueva Pardillo	7	−12	4