Unión Adarve v Villanueva Pardillo prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 13:36

Unión Adarve 4–0 Villanueva Pardillo UNIÓN ADARVE WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Unión Adarve win~~50%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.368

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Unión Adarve win at 50%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Unión Adarve 50% before kick-off, 50% now. 0–0 · 50–25–25
1′KICK-OFF Unión Adarve v Villanueva Pardillo
19′Unión Adarve find the net on 19′. 1–0. 1–0 · 76–16–8
19′We said Unión Adarve at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 76%. 1–0 · 76–16–8
19′⚽ GOAL · 19' Unión Adarve 1–0 Villanueva Pardillo
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' Unión Adarve win: 50% at kick-off, 76% now
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.6 we expected. 1–0 · 76–17–7
42′A goal for Unión Adarve on 42′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 95–4–1
42′We said Unión Adarve at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
42′⚽ GOAL · 42' Unión Adarve 2–0 Villanueva Pardillo
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Unión Adarve win: 50% at kick-off, 95% now
45′J. Pradillos Castrillejo scores for Unión Adarve on 43′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 95–4–1
45′HALF-TIME Unión Adarve 2–0 Villanueva Pardillo
46′SECOND HALF Unión Adarve 2–0 Villanueva Pardillo
61′Unión Adarve score on 60′ to make it 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
61′We said Unión Adarve at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
61′⚽ GOAL · 60' Unión Adarve 3–0 Villanueva Pardillo
61′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 61' Unión Adarve win: 50% at kick-off, over 99% now
62′3 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 3–0 · 100–0–0
82′Unión Adarve find the net on 82′. 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
82′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 4–0 · 100–0–0
82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Unión Adarve 4–0 Villanueva Pardillo
FTFULL TIME Unión Adarve 4–0 Villanueva Pardillo
FTUnión Adarve 4–0 Villanueva Pardillo · Unión Adarve win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Unión Adarve are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Unión Adarve 50%, draw 25%, Villanueva Pardillo 25%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Unión Adarve v Villanueva PardilloBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Unión Adarve win50%

Draw25%

Villanueva Pardillo win25%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 11:00

RoundGroup 7 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Unión Adarve

Villanueva Pardillo

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Unión Adarve	6	−1	9
17	Villanueva Pardillo	6	−8	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · unión adarve winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

50% The market–

Us50%

We make Unión Adarve a 50% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Unión Adarve v Villanueva Pardillo~~1.60 – 1.04

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 this season · since 6 Sept~~W2 D3 L1 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 9 v 4~~9 v 17

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Unión Adarve win	50%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Villanueva Pardillo win	25%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	49%	–	–
Both teams to score	51%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	74%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	27%	–	–
Unión Adarve or draw	75%	–	–
Unión Adarve clean sheet	36%	–	–
Villanueva Pardillo clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.6%

0123450 7.3 7.5 3.9 1 11.5 11.6 6.0 2.1 2 9.1 9.2 4.8 3 4.9 5.0 2.6 4 2.0 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Unión Adarve down, Villanueva Pardillo across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,640 Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.4% of games this season, across 56 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Unión Adarve at home: 2.67 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Villanueva Pardillo away: 1.33 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.60 goals for Unión Adarve, 1.04 for Villanueva Pardillo. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~UNI 1–0 VIL · VIL 2–1 UNI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 this season · since 6 Sept

UNIÓN ADARVE

WDDDLW2–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 0–4 · 2–1

VILLANUEVA PARDILLO

LLLWLD1–3 · 0–2 · 1–5 · 3–2 · 0–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Las Rozas	6	+7	13
2	Colonia Moscardó	6	+9	12
3	Cala Pozuelo	6	+2	12
4	Pozuelo Alarcón	7	−1	12
5	Galapagar	6	+3	11
6	Trival Valderas	6	+3	11
7	Móstoles	6	+3	11
8	Fuenlabrada	7	0	9
9	Unión Adarve	6	−1	9
10	RC Alcobendas	6	+1	8
11	Leganés II	6	+2	7
12	Torrejón	6	+1	7
13	Parla Escuela	6	−1	6
14	Alcobendas Sport	7	−2	6
15	Real Aranjuez	7	−4	6
16	Rayo Vallecano II	6	−6	4
17	Villanueva Pardillo	6	−8	4
18	SS Reyes II	6	−8	3