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Unión Adarve v Móstoles

Unión Adarve

2–1Full time

Móstoles

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · SUN 11 OCT

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 13:41

Unión Adarve 2–1 Móstoles MÓSTOLES WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Móstoles win~~37%

~~The market said~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.611

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.670

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Móstoles win at 37%.
1′Much as we predicted: Unión Adarve was 37% before kick-off and our model makes it 36% now. 0–0 · 36–26–37
9′Unión Adarve find the net on 5′. 1–0. 1–0 · 63–21–15
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 12' Móstoles win: 37% at kick-off, 15% now
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 12' Móstoles win: 37% at kick-off, 37% now
14′A goal for Móstoles on 10′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 35–29–36
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 14' Móstoles win: 37% at kick-off, 37% now
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 14' Móstoles win: 37% at kick-off, 15% now
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 14' Móstoles win: 37% at kick-off, 36% now
15′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 15' Móstoles win: 37% at kick-off, 15% now
15′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 15' Móstoles win: 37% at kick-off, 36% now
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 16' Móstoles win: 37% at kick-off, 15% now
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 16' Móstoles win: 37% at kick-off, 36% now
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 17' Móstoles win: 37% at kick-off, 36% now
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 17' Móstoles win: 37% at kick-off, 15% now
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 18' Móstoles win: 37% at kick-off, 36% now
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 18' Móstoles win: 37% at kick-off, 15% now
19′A goal for Móstoles on 10′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 35–30–35
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 19' Móstoles win: 37% at kick-off, 36% now
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 19' Móstoles win: 37% at kick-off, 15% now
28′⚽ GOAL · 5' Unión Adarve 1–1 Móstoles
28′⚽ GOAL · 10' Unión Adarve 1–1 Móstoles
30′Much as we predicted: Unión Adarve was 37% before kick-off and our model makes it 33% now. 1–1 · 33–33–34
37′🟥 RED CARD · 37' Móstoles
39′A red card for Móstoles on 37′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 1–1 · 31–37–32
39′THE CALL SWINGS · 39' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Unión Adarve win 31%)
45′A red card for Móstoles on 37′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 1–1 · 30–40–30
45′HALF-TIME Unión Adarve 1–1 Móstoles
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Unión Adarve win 30%)
46′SECOND HALF Unión Adarve 1–1 Móstoles
46′THE CALL SWINGS · 46' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Unión Adarve win 30%)
47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Unión Adarve win 30%)
48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Unión Adarve win 30%)
62′⚽ GOAL · 61' Unión Adarve 2–1 Móstoles
FTFULL TIME Unión Adarve 2–1 Móstoles
FTUnión Adarve 2–1 Móstoles · Móstoles win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Unión Adarve win37%

Draw26%

Móstoles win37%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 11:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Unión Adarve

Móstoles

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Móstoles	5	+4	11
11	Unión Adarve	5	−2	6

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · móstoles winPublished 11 Oct 11:02

37% The market38%

Us37%

~~Market~~38%

We make Móstoles a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are within 0 points of the market. The model expects 1.3–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · móstoles win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 38% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Unión Adarve win	37%	33%	+3
Draw	26%	29%	−3
Móstoles win	37%	38%	0
Over 2.5 goals	49%	49%	0
Both teams to score	53%	54%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	74%	72%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	27%	29%	−2
Unión Adarve or draw	63%	62%	0
Unión Adarve clean sheet	27%	–	–
Móstoles clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.2%

0123450 7.4 9.6 6.3 2.8 1 9.4 12.2 8.1 3.6 2 6.1 8.0 5.3 2.4 3 2.7 3.5 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Unión Adarve down, Móstoles across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,631 Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.2% of games this season, across 47 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Unión Adarve at home: 2.50 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Móstoles away: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.31 goals for Unión Adarve, 1.33 for Móstoles. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~UNI 0–2 MOS · MOS 0–3 UNI

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7

UNIÓN ADARVE

WWDDDL5–0 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 0–4

MÓSTOLES

DDWWWD1–1 · 0–0 · 3–1 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Colonia Moscardó	6	+9	12
2	Cala Pozuelo	6	+2	12
3	Trival Valderas	5	+4	11
4	Móstoles	5	+4	11
5	Las Rozas	5	+5	10
6	Galapagar	5	+2	8
7	RC Alcobendas	6	+1	8
8	Fuenlabrada	5	+1	8
9	Leganés II	5	+3	7
10	Torrejón	5	+1	6
11	Unión Adarve	5	−2	6
12	Pozuelo Alarcón	5	−3	6
13	Parla Escuela	5	−1	5
14	Alcobendas Sport	5	−1	5
15	Real Aranjuez	6	−4	5
16	SS Reyes II	5	−6	3
17	Villanueva Pardillo	5	−8	3
18	Rayo Vallecano II	5	−7	1