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Trival Valderas v Cala Pozuelo

Trival Valderas

2–2Full time

Cala Pozuelo

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · SUN 18 OCT

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 13:06

Trival Valderas 2–2 Cala Pozuelo TRIVAL VALDERAS WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Trival Valderas win~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.856

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 19 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Trival Valderas win at 48%.
1′Much as we predicted: Trival Valderas was 48% before kick-off and our model makes it 47% now. 0–0 · 47–26–27
1′KICK-OFF Trival Valderas v Cala Pozuelo
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Trival Valderas win: 48% at kick-off, 38% now
45′HALF-TIME Trival Valderas 0–0 Cala Pozuelo
46′Trival Valderas score on 46′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 77–18–5
46′SECOND HALF Trival Valderas 0–0 Cala Pozuelo
46′⚽ GOAL · 46' Trival Valderas 1–0 Cala Pozuelo
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' Trival Valderas win: 48% at kick-off, 77% now
47′We published Trival Valderas at 48%. Our model now makes it 77%. 1–0 · 77–18–5
47′Goals are coming at about the 2.6 we expected. 1–0 · 77–18–5
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' Trival Valderas win: 48% at kick-off, 78% now
57′Cala Pozuelo find the net on 57′. 1–1. 1–1 · 32–47–21
57′We said Trival Valderas at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 32%. 1–1 · 32–47–21
57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Trival Valderas 1–1 Cala Pozuelo
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 57' Trival Valderas win: 48% at kick-off, 32% now
57′THE CALL SWINGS · 57' Draw is now our likeliest result at 47% (was Trival Valderas win 32%)
63′We said Trival Valderas at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 28%. 1–1 · 28–53–19
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' Trival Valderas win: 48% at kick-off, 28% now
69′We said Trival Valderas at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–59–16
73′A goal for Cala Pozuelo on 72′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 3–18–79
73′We said Trival Valderas at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 3%. 1–2 · 3–18–79
73′⚽ GOAL · 72' Trival Valderas 1–2 Cala Pozuelo
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Trival Valderas win: 48% at kick-off, 3% now
73′THE CALL SWINGS · 73' Cala Pozuelo win is now our likeliest result at 79% (was Draw 18%)
74′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 3–17–80
80′Trival Valderas score on 80′ to make it 2–2. 2–2 · 14–76–10
80′We said Trival Valderas at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 2–2 · 14–76–10
80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Trival Valderas 2–2 Cala Pozuelo
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' Trival Valderas win: 48% at kick-off, 14% now
80′THE CALL SWINGS · 80' Draw is now our likeliest result at 76% (was Cala Pozuelo win 10%)
81′4 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 13–78–9
84′We said Trival Valderas at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 2–2 · 9–85–6
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' Trival Valderas win: 48% at kick-off, 8% now
FTFULL TIME Trival Valderas 2–2 Cala Pozuelo
FTTrival Valderas 2–2 Cala Pozuelo · Trival Valderas win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Trival Valderas are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Trival Valderas 48%, draw 25%, Cala Pozuelo 27%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Trival Valderas v Cala PozueloBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Trival Valderas win48%

Draw25%

Cala Pozuelo win27%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 10:30

RoundGroup 7 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Trival Valderas

Cala Pozuelo

7Days since last match8

Last match: 11 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 7

Last match: 10 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Cala Pozuelo	6	+2	12
6	Trival Valderas	6	+3	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · trival valderas winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

48% The market–

Us48%

We make Trival Valderas a 48% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Trival Valderas v Cala Pozuelo~~1.53 – 1.08

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 this season · since 5 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 11 v 12~~6 v 3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Trival Valderas win	48%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Cala Pozuelo win	27%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	48%	–	–
Both teams to score	51%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	73%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	27%	–	–
Trival Valderas or draw	73%	–	–
Trival Valderas clean sheet	34%	–	–
Cala Pozuelo clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.9%

0123450 7.6 8.1 4.4 1 11.4 11.9 6.4 2.4 2 8.5 9.0 4.9 3 4.4 4.6 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Trival Valderas down, Cala Pozuelo across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,640 Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.4% of games this season, across 56 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Trival Valderas at home: 1.83 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Cala Pozuelo away: 2.17 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.53 goals for Trival Valderas, 1.08 for Cala Pozuelo. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~CAL 1–1 TRI · TRI 4–2 CAL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 this season · since 5 Sept

TRIVAL VALDERAS

WDDWWL3–1 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 0–1

CALA POZUELO

LWLWWW1–3 · 3–2 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 3–1 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Las Rozas	6	+7	13
2	Colonia Moscardó	6	+9	12
3	Cala Pozuelo	6	+2	12
4	Pozuelo Alarcón	7	−1	12
5	Galapagar	6	+3	11
6	Trival Valderas	6	+3	11
7	Móstoles	6	+3	11
8	Fuenlabrada	7	0	9
9	Unión Adarve	6	−1	9
10	RC Alcobendas	6	+1	8
11	Leganés II	6	+2	7
12	Torrejón	6	+1	7
13	Parla Escuela	6	−1	6
14	Alcobendas Sport	7	−2	6
15	Real Aranjuez	7	−4	6
16	Rayo Vallecano II	6	−6	4
17	Villanueva Pardillo	6	−8	4
18	SS Reyes II	6	−8	3