Torrejón v Parla Escuela prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 13:06

Torrejón 4–0 Parla Escuela TORREJÓN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Torrejón win~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.428

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Torrejón win at 47%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Torrejón 47% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 47–24–30
1′KICK-OFF Torrejón v Parla Escuela
29′A goal for Torrejón on 29′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 72–18–10
29′We said Torrejón at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 72%. 1–0 · 72–18–10
29′⚽ GOAL · 29' Torrejón 1–0 Parla Escuela
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 29' Torrejón win: 47% at kick-off, 72% now
30′The goal count is tracking the 3.0 we expected. 1–0 · 72–18–10
45′HALF-TIME Torrejón 1–0 Parla Escuela
46′SECOND HALF Torrejón 1–0 Parla Escuela
48′We said Torrejón at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–19–7
52′M. Reguilon scores for Torrejón on 28′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 75–19–6
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 57' Torrejón win: 47% at kick-off, 77% now
65′Torrejón score on 64′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 97–3–0
65′We said Torrejón at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 97%. 2–0 · 97–3–0
65′⚽ GOAL · 64' Torrejón 2–0 Parla Escuela
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 65' Torrejón win: 47% at kick-off, 97% now
71′Parla Escuela are down to ten from 71′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 2–0 · 98–2–0
71′🟥 RED CARD · 71' Parla Escuela
80′Torrejón find the net on 80′. 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
80′We said Torrejón at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Torrejón 3–0 Parla Escuela
87′A goal for Torrejón on 86′ — 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
87′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.0 across ninety minutes. 4–0 · 100–0–0
87′⚽ GOAL · 86' Torrejón 4–0 Parla Escuela
FTFULL TIME Torrejón 4–0 Parla Escuela
FTTorrejón 4–0 Parla Escuela · Torrejón win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Torrejón are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Torrejón 47%, draw 24%, Parla Escuela 30%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Torrejón v Parla EscuelaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Torrejón win47%

Draw24%

Parla Escuela win30%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 10:30

RoundGroup 7 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Torrejón

Parla Escuela

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 7

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Torrejón	6	+1	7
13	Parla Escuela	6	−1	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · torrejón winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

47% The market–

Us47%

We make Torrejón a 47% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Torrejón v Parla Escuela~~1.70 – 1.30

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 this season · since 6 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 7 v 6~~12 v 13

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Torrejón win	47%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Parla Escuela win	30%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	57%	–	–
Both teams to score	58%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	79%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	35%	–	–
Torrejón or draw	70%	–	–
Torrejón clean sheet	28%	–	–
Parla Escuela clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.8%

0123450 5.2 6.7 4.3 1 8.6 10.8 7.0 3.1 2 7.2 9.0 5.8 2.6 3 4.1 5.1 3.3 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Torrejón down, Parla Escuela across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,640 Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.4% of games this season, across 56 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Torrejón at home: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Parla Escuela away: 1.67 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.70 goals for Torrejón, 1.30 for Parla Escuela. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 this season · since 6 Sept

TORREJÓN

LWLLWD0–1 · 1–0 · 1–3 · 0–1 · 4–0 · 1–1

PARLA ESCUELA

LDWDLD2–5 · 0–0 · 3–0 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Las Rozas	6	+7	13
2	Colonia Moscardó	6	+9	12
3	Cala Pozuelo	6	+2	12
4	Pozuelo Alarcón	7	−1	12
5	Galapagar	6	+3	11
6	Trival Valderas	6	+3	11
7	Móstoles	6	+3	11
8	Fuenlabrada	7	0	9
9	Unión Adarve	6	−1	9
10	RC Alcobendas	6	+1	8
11	Leganés II	6	+2	7
12	Torrejón	6	+1	7
13	Parla Escuela	6	−1	6
14	Alcobendas Sport	7	−2	6
15	Real Aranjuez	7	−4	6
16	Rayo Vallecano II	6	−6	4
17	Villanueva Pardillo	6	−8	4
18	SS Reyes II	6	−8	3