SS Reyes II v Rayo Vallecano II

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said SS Reyes II win at 44%.
2. 1′Little has changed for our model: SS Reyes II 44% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 44–22–33
3. 1′KICK-OFF SS Reyes II v Rayo Vallecano II
4. 16′A goal for SS Reyes II on 16′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 67–18–14
5. 16′⚽ GOAL · 16' SS Reyes II 1–0 Rayo Vallecano II
6. 16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' SS Reyes II win: 44% at kick-off, 67% now
7. 17′We said SS Reyes II at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 68%. 1–0 · 68–18–14
8. 30′The goal count is tracking the 3.4 we expected. 1–0 · 69–19–12
9. 37′We said SS Reyes II at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 1–0 · 70–20–11
10. 39′Rayo Vallecano II score on 39′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 38–32–30
11. 39′⚽ GOAL · 39' SS Reyes II 1–1 Rayo Vallecano II
12. 39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' SS Reyes II win: 44% at kick-off, 38% now
13. 45′Rayo Vallecano II find the net on 45′. 1–2. 1–2 · 13–23–63
14. 45′⚽ GOAL · 45' SS Reyes II 1–2 Rayo Vallecano II
15. 45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' SS Reyes II win: 44% at kick-off, 13% now
16. 45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Rayo Vallecano II win is now our likeliest result at 63% (was SS Reyes II win 13%)
17. 45′HALF-TIME SS Reyes II 1–2 Rayo Vallecano II
18. 46′We said SS Reyes II at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 13%. 1–2 · 13–23–64
19. 46′SECOND HALF SS Reyes II 1–2 Rayo Vallecano II
20. 50′A goal for SS Reyes II on 50′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 35–37–28
21. 50′⚽ GOAL · 50' SS Reyes II 2–2 Rayo Vallecano II
22. 50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' SS Reyes II win: 44% at kick-off, 35% now
23. 51′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.4 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 35–37–28
24. 52′Rayo Vallecano II score on 52′ to make it 2–3. 2–3 · 11–23–66
25. 52′⚽ GOAL · 52' SS Reyes II 2–3 Rayo Vallecano II
26. 52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' SS Reyes II win: 44% at kick-off, 11% now
27. 53′5 goals already, more than the 3.4 we expected for the whole match. 2–3 · 11–23–66
28. 57′We said SS Reyes II at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 2–3 · 9–23–68
29. 64′🟥 RED CARD · 63' Rayo Vallecano II
30. 65′Rayo Vallecano II are down to ten from 63′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 2–3 · 6–22–72
31. 71′We said SS Reyes II at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 2–3 · 4–20–76
32. 71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' SS Reyes II win: 44% at kick-off, 4% now
33. 74′SS Reyes II find the net on 74′. 3–3. 3–3 · 22–60–18
34. 74′⚽ GOAL · 74' SS Reyes II 3–3 Rayo Vallecano II
35. 74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' SS Reyes II win: 44% at kick-off, 22% now
36. 74′THE CALL SWINGS · 74' Draw is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Rayo Vallecano II win 18%)
37. 75′We said SS Reyes II at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 21%. 3–3 · 21–62–17
38. 75′That is 6, and we only asked for 3.4 across ninety minutes. 3–3 · 21–62–17
39. 78′We said SS Reyes II at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 18%. 3–3 · 18–67–15
40. 81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' SS Reyes II win: 44% at kick-off, 14% now
41. 92′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+2' SS Reyes II win: 44% at kick-off, 4% now
42. 94′A second red card for Rayo Vallecano II on 90′ — they are down to nine. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 3–3 · 2–96–2
43. 94′A goal for SS Reyes II on 90′ — 4–3. 4–3 · 98–2–0
44. 94′🟥 RED CARD · 90+3' Rayo Vallecano II
45. 94′⚽ GOAL · 90+4' SS Reyes II 4–3 Rayo Vallecano II
46. 94′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+4' SS Reyes II win: 44% at kick-off, 98% now
47. 94′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+4' SS Reyes II win is now our likeliest result at 98% (was Draw 2%)
48. 95′We said SS Reyes II at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 98%. 4–3 · 98–2–0
49. 95′7 goals already, more than the 3.4 we expected for the whole match. 4–3 · 98–2–0
50. FTFULL TIME SS Reyes II 4–3 Rayo Vallecano II
51. FTSS Reyes II 4–3 Rayo Vallecano II · SS Reyes II win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.