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RC Alcobendas v Leganés II

RC Alcobendas

1–2Full time

Leganés II

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · SUN 18 OCT

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 13:06

RC Alcobendas 1–2 Leganés II LEGANÉS II WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Leganés II win~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.455

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Leganés II win at 45%.
1′Much as we predicted: Leganés II was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 31–24–45
1′KICK-OFF RC Alcobendas v Leganés II
45′HALF-TIME RC Alcobendas 0–0 Leganés II
46′SECOND HALF RC Alcobendas 0–0 Leganés II
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Leganés II win: 45% at kick-off, 35% now
51′THE CALL SWINGS · 51' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Leganés II win 34%)
54′We said Leganés II at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 33%. 0–0 · 25–41–33
55′We expected about 3.1 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 25–42–33
56′RC Alcobendas find the net on 56′. 1–0. 1–0 · 68–23–9
56′⚽ GOAL · 56' RC Alcobendas 1–0 Leganés II
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' Leganés II win: 45% at kick-off, 9% now
56′THE CALL SWINGS · 56' RC Alcobendas win is now our likeliest result at 68% (was Draw 23%)
57′We said Leganés II at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 68–23–9
57′A goal for Leganés II on 57′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 24–44–32
57′⚽ GOAL · 57' RC Alcobendas 1–1 Leganés II
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 57' Leganés II win: 45% at kick-off, 32% now
57′THE CALL SWINGS · 57' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was RC Alcobendas win 24%)
58′Goals are coming at about the 3.1 we expected. 1–1 · 24–44–32
62′We said Leganés II at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 23–48–29
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' Leganés II win: 45% at kick-off, 25% now
70′We said Leganés II at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 19–57–24
74′Leganés II score on 74′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 2–15–83
74′⚽ GOAL · 74' RC Alcobendas 1–2 Leganés II
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' Leganés II win: 45% at kick-off, 83% now
74′THE CALL SWINGS · 74' Leganés II win is now our likeliest result at 83% (was Draw 15%)
75′We published Leganés II at 45%. Our model now makes it 84%. 1–2 · 2–14–84
76′We published Leganés II at 45%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–2 · 2–14–85
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 76' Leganés II win: 45% at kick-off, 85% now
82′We published Leganés II at 45%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–2 · 1–9–90
88′We published Leganés II at 45%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–2 · 0–5–95
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' Leganés II win: 45% at kick-off, 95% now
FTFULL TIME RC Alcobendas 1–2 Leganés II
FTRC Alcobendas 1–2 Leganés II · Leganés II win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Leganés II are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: RC Alcobendas 31%, draw 23%, Leganés II 45%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on RC Alcobendas v Leganés IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

RC Alcobendas win31%

Draw23%

Leganés II win45%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 10:30

RoundGroup 7 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

RC Alcobendas

Leganés II

8Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 7

Last match: 11 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 7

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	RC Alcobendas	6	+1	8
11	Leganés II	6	+2	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · leganés ii winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

45% The market–

Us45%

We make Leganés II a 45% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.7, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · RC Alcobendas v Leganés II~~1.36 – 1.69

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 this season · since 6 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 8 v 7~~10 v 11

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
RC Alcobendas win	31%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Leganés II win	45%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	58%	–	–
Both teams to score	60%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	80%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	36%	–	–
RC Alcobendas or draw	55%	–	–
RC Alcobendas clean sheet	19%	–	–
Leganés II clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.7%

0123450 5.0 8.2 6.7 3.8 1 6.7 10.7 8.9 5.0 2.2 2 4.5 7.2 6.0 3.4 3 2.1 3.3 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+RC Alcobendas down, Leganés II across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,640 Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.4% of games this season, across 56 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

RC Alcobendas at home: 3.33 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 3). Leganés II away: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.36 goals for RC Alcobendas, 1.69 for Leganés II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 this season · since 6 Sept

RC ALCOBENDAS

WDDWLL5–2 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 4–2 · 0–3 · 1–2

LEGANÉS II

WLWLDL2–0 · 2–3 · 4–1 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 2–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Las Rozas	6	+7	13
2	Colonia Moscardó	6	+9	12
3	Cala Pozuelo	6	+2	12
4	Pozuelo Alarcón	7	−1	12
5	Galapagar	6	+3	11
6	Trival Valderas	6	+3	11
7	Móstoles	6	+3	11
8	Fuenlabrada	7	0	9
9	Unión Adarve	6	−1	9
10	RC Alcobendas	6	+1	8
11	Leganés II	6	+2	7
12	Torrejón	6	+1	7
13	Parla Escuela	6	−1	6
14	Alcobendas Sport	7	−2	6
15	Real Aranjuez	7	−4	6
16	Rayo Vallecano II	6	−6	4
17	Villanueva Pardillo	6	−8	4
18	SS Reyes II	6	−8	3