Home › Football › Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 › Rayo Vallecano II v Trival Valderas

Rayo Vallecano II v Trival Valderas

Rayo Vallecano II

1–0Full time

Trival Valderas

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · SUN 11 OCT

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 13:09

Rayo Vallecano II 1–0 Trival Valderas TRIVAL VALDERAS WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Trival Valderas win~~41%

~~The market said~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.643

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.731

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 16 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Trival Valderas win at 41%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Trival Valderas 41% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 35–24–41
14′Little has changed for our model: Trival Valderas 41% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 34–26–40
31′Rayo Vallecano II find the net on 29′. 1–0. 1–0 · 63–22–15
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Trival Valderas win: 41% at kick-off, 15% now
38′THE CALL SWINGS · 38' Rayo Vallecano II win is now our likeliest result at 63% (was Trival Valderas win 15%)
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Trival Valderas win: 41% at kick-off, 38% now
38′THE CALL SWINGS · 38' Trival Valderas win is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Rayo Vallecano II win 33%)
39′Rayo Vallecano II find the net on 29′. 1–0. 1–0 · 64–23–13
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Trival Valderas win: 41% at kick-off, 15% now
39′THE CALL SWINGS · 39' Rayo Vallecano II win is now our likeliest result at 63% (was Trival Valderas win 15%)
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Trival Valderas win: 41% at kick-off, 13% now
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Rayo Vallecano II win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Trival Valderas win 13%)
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Trival Valderas win: 41% at kick-off, 13% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Rayo Vallecano II win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Trival Valderas win 13%)
45′HALF-TIME Rayo Vallecano II 1–0 Trival Valderas
45′⚽ GOAL · 29' Rayo Vallecano II 1–0 Trival Valderas · M. Ballesteros
46′SECOND HALF Rayo Vallecano II 1–0 Trival Valderas
64′🟥 RED CARD · 63' Trival Valderas
68′🟥 RED CARD · 68' Trival Valderas
FTFULL TIME Rayo Vallecano II 1–0 Trival Valderas
FTRayo Vallecano II 1–0 Trival Valderas · Trival Valderas win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Rayo Vallecano II win35%

Draw24%

Trival Valderas win41%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 10:30

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Rayo Vallecano II

Trival Valderas

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Trival Valderas	5	+4	11
18	Rayo Vallecano II	5	−7	1

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · trival valderas winPublished 11 Oct 10:36

41% The market41%

Us41%

~~Market~~41%

We make Trival Valderas a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are within 0 points of the market. The model expects 1.5–1.6.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · trival valderas win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Rayo Vallecano II win	35%	31%	+5
Draw	24%	28%	−5
Trival Valderas win	41%	41%	0
Over 2.5 goals	60%	51%	+8
Both teams to score	61%	56%	+5
Over 1.5 goals	81%	73%	+8
Over 3.5 goals	38%	31%	+7
Rayo Vallecano II or draw	59%	59%	0
Rayo Vallecano II clean sheet	20%	–	–
Trival Valderas clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.6%

0123450 4.7 7.4 5.9 3.2 1 6.8 10.6 8.5 4.6 2 5.0 7.8 6.2 3.4 3 2.5 3.9 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Rayo Vallecano II down, Trival Valderas across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,631 Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.2% of games this season, across 47 played.

Head to head

8 previous meetings, 3.50 goals a meeting; 6 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Rayo Vallecano II at home: 1.50 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Trival Valderas away: 1.17 scored, 0.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.49 goals for Rayo Vallecano II, 1.63 for Trival Valderas. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 8

~~Both scored~~4 of 8

~~Last meetings~~RAY 3–2 TRI · TRI 5–1 RAY · TRI 3–0 RAY · RAY 3–1 TRI

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7

RAYO VALLECANO II

LDLLLL0–1 · 0–0 · 2–3 · 1–4 · 1–2 · 2–4

TRIVAL VALDERAS

WWDDWW3–1 · 3–1 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Colonia Moscardó	6	+9	12
2	Cala Pozuelo	6	+2	12
3	Trival Valderas	5	+4	11
4	Móstoles	5	+4	11
5	Las Rozas	5	+5	10
6	Galapagar	5	+2	8
7	RC Alcobendas	6	+1	8
8	Fuenlabrada	5	+1	8
9	Leganés II	5	+3	7
10	Torrejón	5	+1	6
11	Unión Adarve	5	−2	6
12	Pozuelo Alarcón	5	−3	6
13	Parla Escuela	5	−1	5
14	Alcobendas Sport	5	−1	5
15	Real Aranjuez	6	−4	5
16	SS Reyes II	5	−6	3
17	Villanueva Pardillo	5	−8	3
18	Rayo Vallecano II	5	−7	1