Rayo Vallecano II v Colonia Moscardó prediction · Tercera División RFEF

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Rayo Vallecano IIDrawColonia Moscardó

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 10:45

Before kick-off · Match result · Rayo Vallecano II 39%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Rayo Vallecano II just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Rayo Vallecano II 39%, draw 22%, Colonia Moscardó 39%. Over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 68%.

The AI’s read on Rayo Vallecano II v Colonia MoscardóBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Rayo Vallecano II win39%

Draw22%

Colonia Moscardó win39%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 10:45

RoundGroup 7 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Rayo Vallecano II

Colonia Moscardó

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 7

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Colonia Moscardó	7	+9	13
17	Rayo Vallecano II	7	−7	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · rayo vallecano ii winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

39% The market–

Us39%

We make Rayo Vallecano II a 39% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–1.8, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Rayo Vallecano II v Colonia Moscardó~~1.82 – 1.80

~~Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 this season · since 13 Sept~~W1 D0 L5 · W2 D4 L0

~~Table places · points 4 v 13~~17 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Rayo Vallecano II win	39%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Colonia Moscardó win	39%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	69%	–	–
Both teams to score	68%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	87%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	48%	–	–
Rayo Vallecano II or draw	61%	–	–
Rayo Vallecano II clean sheet	17%	–	–
Colonia Moscardó clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 8.8%

0123450 3.0 5.1 4.5 2.7 1 5.1 8.8 7.7 4.6 2.1 2 4.5 7.7 6.7 4.0 3 2.7 4.6 4.1 2.5 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Rayo Vallecano II down, Colonia Moscardó across0–5 goals a side shown (97.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,650 Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.6% of games this season, across 66 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 3 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Rayo Vallecano II at home: 1.67 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Colonia Moscardó away: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.82 goals for Rayo Vallecano II, 1.80 for Colonia Moscardó. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 6

~~Both scored~~1 of 6

~~Last meetings~~COL 4–0 RAY · RAY 0–1 COL · COL 3–2 RAY · RAY 0–2 COL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 this season · since 13 Sept

RAYO VALLECANO II

LLLLWL2–3 · 1–4 · 1–2 · 2–4 · 1–0 · 3–4

COLONIA MOSCARDÓ

DWDWDD1–1 · 5–1 · 2–2 · 5–1 · 1–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Las Rozas	8	+8	17
2	Móstoles	7	+6	14
3	Cala Pozuelo	8	+2	14
4	Colonia Moscardó	7	+9	13
5	Unión Adarve	7	+3	12
6	Trival Valderas	7	+3	12
7	Pozuelo Alarcón	7	−1	12
8	Galapagar	7	0	11
9	Torrejón	7	+5	10
10	Leganés II	7	+3	10
11	Fuenlabrada	8	0	10
12	RC Alcobendas	7	0	8
13	Real Aranjuez	8	−4	7
14	SS Reyes II	8	−7	7
15	Alcobendas Sport	8	−3	6
16	Parla Escuela	7	−5	6
17	Rayo Vallecano II	7	−7	4
18	Villanueva Pardillo	7	−12	4