Pozuelo Alarcón v Torrejón prediction · Tercera División RFEF

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Pozuelo AlarcónDrawTorrejón

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 11:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Torrejón 38%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Torrejón just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Pozuelo Alarcón 36%, draw 26%, Torrejón 38%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Pozuelo Alarcón v TorrejónBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Pozuelo Alarcón win36%

Draw26%

Torrejón win38%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 11:00

RoundGroup 7 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Pozuelo Alarcón

Torrejón

8Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 7

Last match: 18 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Pozuelo Alarcón	7	−1	12
9	Torrejón	7	+5	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · torrejón winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

38% The market–

Us38%

We make Torrejón a 38% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Pozuelo Alarcón v Torrejón~~1.33 – 1.36

~~Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 this season · since 12 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 12 v 10~~7 v 9

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Pozuelo Alarcón win	36%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Torrejón win	38%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	50%	–	–
Both teams to score	54%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	75%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	28%	–	–
Pozuelo Alarcón or draw	62%	–	–
Pozuelo Alarcón clean sheet	26%	–	–
Torrejón clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.2%

0123450 7.1 9.2 6.3 2.9 1 9.1 12.2 8.2 3.7 2 6.0 8.0 5.4 2.5 3 2.7 3.6 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Pozuelo Alarcón down, Torrejón across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,650 Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.6% of games this season, across 66 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.12 goals a meeting; 3 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Pozuelo Alarcón at home: 2.83 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Torrejón away: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.33 goals for Pozuelo Alarcón, 1.36 for Torrejón. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.12

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 8

~~Both scored~~4 of 8

~~Last meetings~~POZ 0–1 TOR · TOR 1–3 POZ · POZ 0–1 TOR · TOR 0–0 POZ

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 this season · since 12 Sept

POZUELO ALARCÓN

DDWLWW1–1 · 1–1 · 3–2 · 1–5 · 4–3 · 1–0

TORREJÓN

WLLWDW1–0 · 1–3 · 0–1 · 4–0 · 1–1 · 4–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Las Rozas	7	+7	14
2	Móstoles	7	+6	14
3	Colonia Moscardó	7	+9	13
4	Cala Pozuelo	7	+2	13
5	Unión Adarve	7	+3	12
6	Trival Valderas	7	+3	12
7	Pozuelo Alarcón	7	−1	12
8	Galapagar	7	0	11
9	Torrejón	7	+5	10
10	Leganés II	7	+3	10
11	Fuenlabrada	7	0	9
12	RC Alcobendas	7	0	8
13	Alcobendas Sport	7	−2	6
14	Real Aranjuez	7	−4	6
15	Parla Escuela	7	−5	6
16	SS Reyes II	7	−7	6
17	Rayo Vallecano II	7	−7	4
18	Villanueva Pardillo	7	−12	4