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Pozuelo Alarcón v Alcobendas Sport

Pozuelo Alarcón

4–3Full time

Alcobendas Sport

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · SUN 11 OCT

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 13:41

Pozuelo Alarcón 4–3 Alcobendas Sport POZUELO ALARCÓN WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Pozuelo Alarcón win~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.517

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Pozuelo Alarcón win at 41%.
1′Much as we predicted: Pozuelo Alarcón was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 41–27–31
2′Much as we predicted: Pozuelo Alarcón was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 41–28–31
10′8′ and it is 0–1: Alcobendas Sport have scored. 0–1 · 17–23–60
15′8′ and it is 0–1: Alcobendas Sport have scored. 0–1 · 16–23–61
20′Pozuelo Alarcón find the net on 16′. 1–1. 1–1 · 38–32–30
25′Pozuelo Alarcón find the net on 16′. 1–1. 1–1 · 38–33–29
40′A goal for Pozuelo Alarcón on 32′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 73–20–7
45′45′ and it is 2–2: Alcobendas Sport have scored. 2–2 · 33–42–26
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Pozuelo Alarcón win: 41% at kick-off, 73% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Pozuelo Alarcón win: 41% at kick-off, 36% now
45′⚽ GOAL · 46' Pozuelo Alarcón 2–2 Alcobendas Sport
45′HALF-TIME Pozuelo Alarcón 2–2 Alcobendas Sport
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Pozuelo Alarcón win 33%)
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Pozuelo Alarcón win is now our likeliest result at 73% (was Draw 20%)
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Pozuelo Alarcón win: 41% at kick-off, 33% now
46′SECOND HALF Pozuelo Alarcón 2–2 Alcobendas Sport
49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Pozuelo Alarcón win 33%)
50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Pozuelo Alarcón win 33%)
51′THE CALL SWINGS · 51' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Pozuelo Alarcón win 33%)
52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Pozuelo Alarcón win 33%)
53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Pozuelo Alarcón win 33%)
54′THE CALL SWINGS · 54' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Pozuelo Alarcón win 33%)
73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Pozuelo Alarcón 3–2 Alcobendas Sport
78′⚽ GOAL · 78' Pozuelo Alarcón 3–3 Alcobendas Sport
90′⚽ GOAL · 92' Pozuelo Alarcón 4–3 Alcobendas Sport
FTFULL TIME Pozuelo Alarcón 4–3 Alcobendas Sport
FTPozuelo Alarcón 4–3 Alcobendas Sport · Pozuelo Alarcón win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Pozuelo Alarcón win41%

Draw27%

Alcobendas Sport win31%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 11:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Pozuelo Alarcón

Alcobendas Sport

7Days since last match8

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Pozuelo Alarcón	5	−3	6
14	Alcobendas Sport	5	−1	5

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · pozuelo alarcón winPublished 11 Oct 11:02

41% The market–

Us41%

We make Pozuelo Alarcón a 41% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Pozuelo Alarcón win	41%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Alcobendas Sport win	31%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	44%	–	–
Both teams to score	49%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	70%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	23%	–	–
Pozuelo Alarcón or draw	69%	–	–
Pozuelo Alarcón clean sheet	33%	–	–
Alcobendas Sport clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%

0123450 9.0 9.8 5.5 2.1 1 11.6 12.7 7.0 2.7 2 7.6 8.3 4.6 3 3.4 3.7 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Pozuelo Alarcón down, Alcobendas Sport across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,631 Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.2% of games this season, across 47 played.

Head to head

8 previous meetings, 2.25 goals a meeting; 4 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Pozuelo Alarcón at home: 2.50 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Alcobendas Sport away: 1.83 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.32 goals for Pozuelo Alarcón, 1.11 for Alcobendas Sport. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.25

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 8

~~Both scored~~3 of 8

~~Last meetings~~ALC 0–3 POZ · POZ 1–2 ALC · POZ 0–0 ALC · ALC 0–0 POZ

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7

POZUELO ALARCÓN

WDDDWL3–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 3–2 · 1–5

ALCOBENDAS SPORT

WDLDLW2–1 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Colonia Moscardó	6	+9	12
2	Cala Pozuelo	6	+2	12
3	Trival Valderas	5	+4	11
4	Móstoles	5	+4	11
5	Las Rozas	5	+5	10
6	Galapagar	5	+2	8
7	RC Alcobendas	6	+1	8
8	Fuenlabrada	5	+1	8
9	Leganés II	5	+3	7
10	Torrejón	5	+1	6
11	Unión Adarve	5	−2	6
12	Pozuelo Alarcón	5	−3	6
13	Parla Escuela	5	−1	5
14	Alcobendas Sport	5	−1	5
15	Real Aranjuez	6	−4	5
16	SS Reyes II	5	−6	3
17	Villanueva Pardillo	5	−8	3
18	Rayo Vallecano II	5	−7	1