Parla Escuela v Unión Adarve prediction · Tercera División RFEF

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Parla EscuelaDrawUnión Adarve

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 10:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Unión Adarve 42%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Unión Adarve are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Parla Escuela 34%, draw 24%, Unión Adarve 42%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Parla Escuela v Unión AdarveBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Parla Escuela win34%

Draw24%

Unión Adarve win42%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 10:30

RoundGroup 7 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Parla Escuela

Unión Adarve

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Unión Adarve	7	+3	12
16	Parla Escuela	7	−5	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · unión adarve winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

42% The market–

Us42%

We make Unión Adarve a 42% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.6, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Parla Escuela v Unión Adarve~~1.38 – 1.58

~~Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 this season · since 13 Sept~~W1 D3 L2 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 6 v 12~~16 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Parla Escuela win	34%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Unión Adarve win	42%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	56%	–	–
Both teams to score	58%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	79%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	34%	–	–
Parla Escuela or draw	58%	–	–
Parla Escuela clean sheet	21%	–	–
Unión Adarve clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.1%

0123450 5.5 8.3 6.5 3.4 1 7.2 11.1 8.6 4.6 2 5.0 7.6 5.9 3.1 3 2.3 3.5 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Parla Escuela down, Unión Adarve across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,650 Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.6% of games this season, across 66 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Parla Escuela at home: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 3). Unión Adarve away: 1.17 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.38 goals for Parla Escuela, 1.58 for Unión Adarve. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 this season · since 13 Sept

PARLA ESCUELA

DWDLDL0–0 · 3–0 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 0–4

UNIÓN ADARVE

DDDLWW1–1 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 0–4 · 2–1 · 4–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Las Rozas	8	+8	17
2	Móstoles	7	+6	14
3	Cala Pozuelo	8	+2	14
4	Colonia Moscardó	7	+9	13
5	Unión Adarve	7	+3	12
6	Trival Valderas	7	+3	12
7	Pozuelo Alarcón	7	−1	12
8	Galapagar	7	0	11
9	Torrejón	7	+5	10
10	Leganés II	7	+3	10
11	Fuenlabrada	8	0	10
12	RC Alcobendas	7	0	8
13	Real Aranjuez	8	−4	7
14	SS Reyes II	8	−7	7
15	Alcobendas Sport	8	−3	6
16	Parla Escuela	7	−5	6
17	Rayo Vallecano II	7	−7	4
18	Villanueva Pardillo	7	−12	4