Parla Escuela v Fuenlabrada prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 13:09

Parla Escuela 2–2 Fuenlabrada PARLA ESCUELA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Parla Escuela win~~40%

~~The market said~~27%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.844

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.769

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Parla Escuela win at 40%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Parla Escuela 40% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 40–25–34
1′KICK-OFF Parla Escuela v Fuenlabrada
16′Little has changed for our model: Parla Escuela 40% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 38–28–33
45′HALF-TIME Parla Escuela 0–0 Fuenlabrada
46′SECOND HALF Parla Escuela 0–0 Fuenlabrada
56′⚽ GOAL · 55' Parla Escuela 0–1 Fuenlabrada
60′⚽ GOAL · 59' Parla Escuela 1–1 Fuenlabrada
63′⚽ GOAL · 63' Parla Escuela 2–1 Fuenlabrada
64′⚽ GOAL · 63' Parla Escuela 2–1 Fuenlabrada
65′⚽ GOAL · 63' Parla Escuela 2–1 Fuenlabrada
66′⚽ GOAL · 63' Parla Escuela 2–1 Fuenlabrada
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Parla Escuela 2–2 Fuenlabrada
FTFULL TIME Parla Escuela 2–2 Fuenlabrada
FTParla Escuela 2–2 Fuenlabrada · Parla Escuela win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Parla Escuela win40%

Draw25%

Fuenlabrada win35%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 10:30

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Parla Escuela

Fuenlabrada

8Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Fuenlabrada	5	+1	8
13	Parla Escuela	5	−1	5

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · parla escuela winPublished 11 Oct 10:36

40% The market27%

Us40%

~~Market~~27%

We make Parla Escuela a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 27%. We are 13 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · parla escuela win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 27% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Parla Escuela win	40%	27%	+13
Draw	25%	29%	−4
Fuenlabrada win	35%	44%	−9
Over 2.5 goals	52%	43%	+9
Both teams to score	55%	49%	+6
Over 1.5 goals	76%	67%	+9
Over 3.5 goals	31%	24%	+6
Parla Escuela or draw	65%	56%	+9
Parla Escuela clean sheet	27%	–	–
Fuenlabrada clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.6%

0123450 6.7 8.4 5.5 2.5 1 9.2 11.6 7.6 3.4 2 6.5 8.3 5.4 2.5 3 3.2 4.1 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Parla Escuela down, Fuenlabrada across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,631 Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.2% of games this season, across 47 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Parla Escuela at home: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 2). Fuenlabrada away: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 2).

What the model expects

1.46 goals for Parla Escuela, 1.33 for Fuenlabrada. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7

PARLA ESCUELA

LDWDL2–5 · 0–0 · 3–0 · 2–2 · 0–1

FUENLABRADA

DLWDW0–0 · 1–3 · 3–1 · 2–2 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Colonia Moscardó	6	+9	12
2	Cala Pozuelo	6	+2	12
3	Trival Valderas	5	+4	11
4	Móstoles	5	+4	11
5	Las Rozas	5	+5	10
6	Galapagar	5	+2	8
7	RC Alcobendas	6	+1	8
8	Fuenlabrada	5	+1	8
9	Leganés II	5	+3	7
10	Torrejón	5	+1	6
11	Unión Adarve	5	−2	6
12	Pozuelo Alarcón	5	−3	6
13	Parla Escuela	5	−1	5
14	Alcobendas Sport	5	−1	5
15	Real Aranjuez	6	−4	5
16	SS Reyes II	5	−6	3
17	Villanueva Pardillo	5	−8	3
18	Rayo Vallecano II	5	−7	1