Móstoles v Galapagar prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 13:36

Móstoles 3–0 Galapagar MÓSTOLES WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Móstoles win~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.395

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Móstoles win at 49%.
1′Much as we predicted: Móstoles was 49% before kick-off and our model makes it 49% now. 0–0 · 49–25–27
1′KICK-OFF Móstoles v Galapagar
3′Móstoles score on 3′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 73–16–10
3′⚽ GOAL · 3' Móstoles 1–0 Galapagar
3′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 3' Móstoles win: 49% at kick-off, 73% now
4′We published Móstoles at 49%. Our model now makes it 73%. 1–0 · 73–16–10
20′Móstoles find the net on 20′. 2–0. 2–0 · 91–7–2
20′⚽ GOAL · 20' Móstoles 2–0 Galapagar
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 20' Móstoles win: 49% at kick-off, 91% now
21′We published Móstoles at 49%. Our model now makes it 91%. 2–0 · 91–7–2
45′A goal for Móstoles on 45′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 99–1–0
45′J. Diaz Hervas scores for Móstoles on 43′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 99–1–0
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Móstoles 3–0 Galapagar
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Móstoles win: 49% at kick-off, 99% now
45′HALF-TIME Móstoles 3–0 Galapagar
46′We published Móstoles at 49%. Our model now makes it 99%. 3–0 · 99–1–0
46′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 3–0 · 99–1–0
46′SECOND HALF Móstoles 3–0 Galapagar
59′We published Móstoles at 49%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Móstoles 3–0 Galapagar
FTMóstoles 3–0 Galapagar · Móstoles win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Móstoles are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Móstoles 49%, draw 24%, Galapagar 27%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Móstoles v GalapagarBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Móstoles win49%

Draw24%

Galapagar win27%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 10:45

RoundGroup 7 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Móstoles

Galapagar

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Galapagar	6	+3	11
7	Móstoles	6	+3	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · móstoles winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

49% The market–

Us49%

We make Móstoles a 49% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Móstoles v Galapagar~~1.63 – 1.14

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 this season · since 6 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 11 v 11~~7 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Móstoles win	49%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Galapagar win	27%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	52%	–	–
Both teams to score	54%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	76%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	30%	–	–
Móstoles or draw	73%	–	–
Móstoles clean sheet	32%	–	–
Galapagar clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.4%

0123450 6.4 7.3 4.1 1 10.3 11.4 6.5 2.5 2 8.3 9.2 5.2 2.0 3 4.5 5.0 2.9 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Móstoles down, Galapagar across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,640 Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.4% of games this season, across 56 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Móstoles at home: 1.33 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Galapagar away: 2.83 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.63 goals for Móstoles, 1.14 for Galapagar. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 6

~~Both scored~~2 of 6

~~Last meetings~~GAL 1–1 MOS · MOS 1–0 GAL · GAL 3–3 MOS · MOS 0–0 GAL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 this season · since 6 Sept

MÓSTOLES

DWWWDL0–0 · 3–1 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–2

GALAPAGAR

DWDWLW1–1 · 5–2 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 1–3 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Las Rozas	6	+7	13
2	Colonia Moscardó	6	+9	12
3	Cala Pozuelo	6	+2	12
4	Pozuelo Alarcón	7	−1	12
5	Galapagar	6	+3	11
6	Trival Valderas	6	+3	11
7	Móstoles	6	+3	11
8	Fuenlabrada	7	0	9
9	Unión Adarve	6	−1	9
10	RC Alcobendas	6	+1	8
11	Leganés II	6	+2	7
12	Torrejón	6	+1	7
13	Parla Escuela	6	−1	6
14	Alcobendas Sport	7	−2	6
15	Real Aranjuez	7	−4	6
16	Rayo Vallecano II	6	−6	4
17	Villanueva Pardillo	6	−8	4
18	SS Reyes II	6	−8	3