Leganés II v Trival Valderas prediction · Tercera División RFEF

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Leganés IIDrawTrival Valderas

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 11:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Leganés II 48%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Leganés II are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Leganés II 48%, draw 26%, Trival Valderas 27%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Leganés II v Trival ValderasBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Leganés II win48%

Draw26%

Trival Valderas win27%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 11:00

RoundGroup 7 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Leganés II

Trival Valderas

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Trival Valderas	7	+3	12
10	Leganés II	7	+3	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · leganés ii winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

48% The market–

Us48%

We make Leganés II a 48% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Leganés II v Trival Valderas~~1.52 – 1.07

~~Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 this season · since 13 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 10 v 12~~10 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Leganés II win	48%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Trival Valderas win	27%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	48%	–	–
Both teams to score	51%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	73%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	26%	–	–
Leganés II or draw	73%	–	–
Leganés II clean sheet	35%	–	–
Trival Valderas clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.0%

0123450 7.7 8.1 4.3 1 11.5 12.0 6.4 2.3 2 8.7 9.1 4.8 3 4.4 4.6 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Leganés II down, Trival Valderas across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,647 Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.7% of games this season, across 63 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.88 goals a meeting; 2 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Leganés II at home: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Trival Valderas away: 1.00 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.52 goals for Leganés II, 1.07 for Trival Valderas. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.88

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 8

~~Both scored~~3 of 8

~~Last meetings~~TRI 0–1 LEG · LEG 0–1 TRI · LEG 0–1 TRI · TRI 0–2 LEG

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 this season · since 13 Sept

LEGANÉS II

LWLDLW2–3 · 4–1 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 2–1

TRIVAL VALDERAS

DDWWLD0–0 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Las Rozas	7	+7	14
2	Móstoles	7	+6	14
3	Colonia Moscardó	7	+9	13
4	Cala Pozuelo	7	+2	13
5	Unión Adarve	7	+3	12
6	Trival Valderas	7	+3	12
7	Pozuelo Alarcón	7	−1	12
8	Galapagar	7	0	11
9	Torrejón	7	+5	10
10	Leganés II	7	+3	10
11	Fuenlabrada	7	0	9
12	RC Alcobendas	7	0	8
13	Alcobendas Sport	7	−2	6
14	Real Aranjuez	7	−4	6
15	Parla Escuela	7	−5	6
16	SS Reyes II	7	−7	6
17	Rayo Vallecano II	7	−7	4
18	Villanueva Pardillo	7	−12	4