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Leganés II v Galapagar

Leganés II

2–3Full time

Galapagar

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · SUN 11 OCT

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 13:41

Leganés II 2–3 Galapagar LEGANÉS II WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Leganés II win~~56%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.980

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 29 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Leganés II win at 56%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Leganés II 56% before kick-off, 56% now. 0–0 · 56–23–21
7′Little has changed for our model: Leganés II 56% before kick-off, 55% now. 0–0 · 55–24–21
29′A goal for Leganés II on 27′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 79–15–6
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' Leganés II win: 56% at kick-off, 79% now
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 31' Leganés II win: 56% at kick-off, 51% now
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 32' Leganés II win: 56% at kick-off, 79% now
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' Leganés II win: 56% at kick-off, 51% now
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' Leganés II win: 56% at kick-off, 51% now
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 33' Leganés II win: 56% at kick-off, 79% now
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' Leganés II win: 56% at kick-off, 51% now
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 34' Leganés II win: 56% at kick-off, 79% now
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Leganés II win: 56% at kick-off, 51% now
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 35' Leganés II win: 56% at kick-off, 79% now
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 36' Leganés II win: 56% at kick-off, 79% now
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Leganés II win: 56% at kick-off, 51% now
37′A goal for Leganés II on 27′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 79–15–5
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Leganés II win: 56% at kick-off, 51% now
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' Leganés II win: 56% at kick-off, 79% now
45′We said Leganés II at 56% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–16–4
45′HALF-TIME Leganés II 1–0 Galapagar
46′SECOND HALF Leganés II 1–0 Galapagar
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 48' Leganés II win: 56% at kick-off, 80% now
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Leganés II win: 56% at kick-off, 80% now
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' Leganés II win: 56% at kick-off, 80% now
51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Leganés II 1–1 Galapagar
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' Leganés II win: 56% at kick-off, 80% now
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 52' Leganés II win: 56% at kick-off, 80% now
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Leganés II win: 56% at kick-off, 80% now
65′🟥 RED CARD · 65' Leganés II
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Leganés II 1–2 Galapagar
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Leganés II 1–3 Galapagar · G. Rodriguez
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Leganés II 1–3 Galapagar
81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Leganés II 2–3 Galapagar
FTFULL TIME Leganés II 2–3 Galapagar
FTLeganés II 2–3 Galapagar · Leganés II win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Leganés II win56%

Draw23%

Galapagar win21%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 11:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Leganés II

Galapagar

7Days since last match7

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Galapagar	5	+2	8
9	Leganés II	5	+3	7

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · leganés ii winPublished 11 Oct 11:02

56% The market–

Us56%

We make Leganés II a 56% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Leganés II win	56%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Galapagar win	21%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	55%	–	–
Both teams to score	54%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	78%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	32%	–	–
Leganés II or draw	79%	–	–
Leganés II clean sheet	36%	–	–
Galapagar clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.7%

0123450 5.9 6.0 3.1 1 10.4 10.7 5.5 2 9.4 9.6 5.0 3 5.8 5.9 3.0 4 2.7 2.8 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Leganés II down, Galapagar across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,631 Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.2% of games this season, across 47 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 1.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Leganés II at home: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Galapagar away: 2.83 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.84 goals for Leganés II, 1.04 for Galapagar. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 6

~~Both scored~~2 of 6

~~Last meetings~~LEG 0–1 GAL · GAL 2–2 LEG · LEG 0–2 GAL · GAL 1–1 LEG

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7

LEGANÉS II

WWLWLD1–0 · 2–0 · 2–3 · 4–1 · 0–1 · 1–1

GALAPAGAR

WDWDWL3–1 · 1–1 · 5–2 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Colonia Moscardó	6	+9	12
2	Cala Pozuelo	6	+2	12
3	Trival Valderas	5	+4	11
4	Móstoles	5	+4	11
5	Las Rozas	5	+5	10
6	Galapagar	5	+2	8
7	RC Alcobendas	6	+1	8
8	Fuenlabrada	5	+1	8
9	Leganés II	5	+3	7
10	Torrejón	5	+1	6
11	Unión Adarve	5	−2	6
12	Pozuelo Alarcón	5	−3	6
13	Parla Escuela	5	−1	5
14	Alcobendas Sport	5	−1	5
15	Real Aranjuez	6	−4	5
16	SS Reyes II	5	−6	3
17	Villanueva Pardillo	5	−8	3
18	Rayo Vallecano II	5	−7	1