Home › Football › Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 › Las Rozas v SS Reyes II

Las Rozas v SS Reyes II

Las Rozas

4–2Full time

SS Reyes II

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · SUN 11 OCT

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 13:41

Las Rozas 4–2 SS Reyes II LAS ROZAS WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Las Rozas win~~50%

~~The market said~~59%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.377

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.258

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Las Rozas win at 50%.
1′Much as we predicted: Las Rozas was 50% before kick-off and our model makes it 50% now. 0–0 · 50–24–26
1′KICK-OFF Las Rozas v SS Reyes II
3′Much as we predicted: Las Rozas was 50% before kick-off and our model makes it 50% now. 0–0 · 50–24–26
44′⚽ GOAL · 44' Las Rozas 0–1 SS Reyes II
45′SS Reyes II find the net on 44′. 0–1. 0–1 · 14–26–61
45′HALF-TIME Las Rozas 0–1 SS Reyes II
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Las Rozas win: 50% at kick-off, 14% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' SS Reyes II win is now our likeliest result at 61% (was Las Rozas win 14%)
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Las Rozas win: 50% at kick-off, 41% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Las Rozas win is now our likeliest result at 41% (was SS Reyes II win 24%)
46′SECOND HALF Las Rozas 0–1 SS Reyes II
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Las Rozas win: 50% at kick-off, 14% now
50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' SS Reyes II win is now our likeliest result at 61% (was Las Rozas win 14%)
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Las Rozas win: 50% at kick-off, 14% now
51′THE CALL SWINGS · 51' SS Reyes II win is now our likeliest result at 61% (was Las Rozas win 14%)
51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Las Rozas 1–1 SS Reyes II
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Las Rozas win: 50% at kick-off, 14% now
52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' SS Reyes II win is now our likeliest result at 61% (was Las Rozas win 14%)
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Las Rozas win: 50% at kick-off, 14% now
53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' SS Reyes II win is now our likeliest result at 61% (was Las Rozas win 14%)
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Las Rozas win: 50% at kick-off, 14% now
54′THE CALL SWINGS · 54' SS Reyes II win is now our likeliest result at 61% (was Las Rozas win 14%)
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' Las Rozas win: 50% at kick-off, 14% now
55′THE CALL SWINGS · 55' SS Reyes II win is now our likeliest result at 61% (was Las Rozas win 14%)
63′⚽ GOAL · 63' Las Rozas 2–1 SS Reyes II
70′⚽ GOAL · 70' Las Rozas 3–1 SS Reyes II
85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Las Rozas 4–1 SS Reyes II
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Las Rozas 4–2 SS Reyes II
FTFULL TIME Las Rozas 4–2 SS Reyes II
FTLas Rozas 4–2 SS Reyes II · Las Rozas win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Las Rozas win50%

Draw24%

SS Reyes II win26%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 11:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Las Rozas

SS Reyes II

4Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Las Rozas	5	+5	10
16	SS Reyes II	5	−6	3

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · las rozas winPublished 11 Oct 11:02

50% The market59%

Us50%

~~Market~~59%

We make Las Rozas a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 59%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · las rozas win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 58% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Las Rozas win	50%	59%	−9
Draw	24%	23%	0
SS Reyes II win	26%	18%	+8
Over 2.5 goals	55%	57%	−3
Both teams to score	56%	55%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	78%	79%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	33%	37%	−4
Las Rozas or draw	74%	82%	−8
Las Rozas clean sheet	31%	–	–
SS Reyes II clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.1%

0123450 5.8 6.7 3.9 1 9.7 11.1 6.5 2.6 2 8.2 9.3 5.5 2.2 3 4.7 5.3 3.1 4 2.1 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Las Rozas down, SS Reyes II across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,631 Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.2% of games this season, across 47 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Las Rozas at home: 1.83 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). SS Reyes II away: 2.17 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.71 goals for Las Rozas, 1.17 for SS Reyes II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~LAS 1–0 SSR · SSR 1–2 LAS

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7

LAS ROZAS

LWWDLW1–3 · 3–1 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 3–0

SS REYES II

WLWLLL4–0 · 0–2 · 2–0 · 0–3 · 2–3 · 3–5

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Colonia Moscardó	6	+9	12
2	Cala Pozuelo	6	+2	12
3	Trival Valderas	5	+4	11
4	Móstoles	5	+4	11
5	Las Rozas	5	+5	10
6	Galapagar	5	+2	8
7	RC Alcobendas	6	+1	8
8	Fuenlabrada	5	+1	8
9	Leganés II	5	+3	7
10	Torrejón	5	+1	6
11	Unión Adarve	5	−2	6
12	Pozuelo Alarcón	5	−3	6
13	Parla Escuela	5	−1	5
14	Alcobendas Sport	5	−1	5
15	Real Aranjuez	6	−4	5
16	SS Reyes II	5	−6	3
17	Villanueva Pardillo	5	−8	3
18	Rayo Vallecano II	5	−7	1