Galapagar v RC Alcobendas prediction · Tercera División RFEF

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

GalapagarDrawRC Alcobendas

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 10:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Galapagar 43%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Galapagar are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Galapagar 43%, draw 23%, RC Alcobendas 34%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on Galapagar v RC AlcobendasBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Galapagar win43%

Draw23%

RC Alcobendas win34%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 10:30

RoundGroup 7 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Galapagar

RC Alcobendas

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 7

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Galapagar	7	0	11
12	RC Alcobendas	7	0	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · galapagar winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

43% The market–

Us43%

We make Galapagar a 43% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Galapagar v RC Alcobendas~~1.66 – 1.45

~~Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 this season · since 12 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 11 v 8~~8 v 12

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Galapagar win	43%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
RC Alcobendas win	34%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	60%	–	–
Both teams to score	61%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	81%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	38%	–	–
Galapagar or draw	66%	–	–
Galapagar clean sheet	24%	–	–
RC Alcobendas clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.6%

0123450 4.7 6.7 4.8 2.3 1 7.6 10.6 7.6 3.7 2 6.1 8.6 6.2 3.0 3 3.4 4.8 3.4 4 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Galapagar down, RC Alcobendas across0–5 goals a side shown (98.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,647 Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.7% of games this season, across 63 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Galapagar at home: 1.17 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). RC Alcobendas away: 0.67 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.66 goals for Galapagar, 1.45 for RC Alcobendas. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 this season · since 12 Sept

GALAPAGAR

WDWLWL5–2 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 1–3 · 3–2 · 0–3

RC ALCOBENDAS

DDWLLL1–1 · 1–1 · 4–2 · 0–3 · 1–2 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Las Rozas	7	+7	14
2	Móstoles	7	+6	14
3	Colonia Moscardó	7	+9	13
4	Cala Pozuelo	7	+2	13
5	Unión Adarve	7	+3	12
6	Trival Valderas	7	+3	12
7	Pozuelo Alarcón	7	−1	12
8	Galapagar	7	0	11
9	Torrejón	7	+5	10
10	Leganés II	7	+3	10
11	Fuenlabrada	7	0	9
12	RC Alcobendas	7	0	8
13	Alcobendas Sport	7	−2	6
14	Real Aranjuez	7	−4	6
15	Parla Escuela	7	−5	6
16	SS Reyes II	7	−7	6
17	Rayo Vallecano II	7	−7	4
18	Villanueva Pardillo	7	−12	4