Fuenlabrada v Pozuelo Alarcón prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:42

Fuenlabrada 0–1 Pozuelo Alarcón FUENLABRADA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Fuenlabrada win~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.746

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Fuenlabrada win at 44%.
1′Much as we predicted: Fuenlabrada was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 44–26–30
1′KICK-OFF Fuenlabrada v Pozuelo Alarcón
45′HALF-TIME Fuenlabrada 0–0 Pozuelo Alarcón
46′SECOND HALF Fuenlabrada 0–0 Pozuelo Alarcón
46′THE CALL SWINGS · 46' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Fuenlabrada win 35%)
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Fuenlabrada win: 44% at kick-off, 34% now
52′We said Fuenlabrada at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 32%. 0–0 · 32–43–24
55′We expected about 2.7 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 31–45–23
59′We said Fuenlabrada at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–49–22
66′A goal for Pozuelo Alarcón on 65′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 5–21–75
66′We said Fuenlabrada at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 5%. 0–1 · 5–21–75
66′⚽ GOAL · 65' Fuenlabrada 0–1 Pozuelo Alarcón
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Fuenlabrada win: 44% at kick-off, 5% now
66′THE CALL SWINGS · 66' Pozuelo Alarcón win is now our likeliest result at 75% (was Draw 21%)
67′We said Fuenlabrada at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–20–75
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Fuenlabrada win: 44% at kick-off, 4% now
FTFULL TIME Fuenlabrada 0–1 Pozuelo Alarcón
FTFuenlabrada 0–1 Pozuelo Alarcón · Fuenlabrada win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Fuenlabrada are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Fuenlabrada 44%, draw 25%, Pozuelo Alarcón 30%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Fuenlabrada v Pozuelo AlarcónBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Fuenlabrada win44%

Draw25%

Pozuelo Alarcón win30%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 16:00

RoundGroup 7 · matchday 7

VenueEstadio Fernando Torres

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Fuenlabrada

Pozuelo Alarcón

6Days since last match6

Last match: 11 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Fuenlabrada	6	+1	9
9	Pozuelo Alarcón	6	−2	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fuenlabrada winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

44% The market–

Us44%

We make Fuenlabrada a 44% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Fuenlabrada v Pozuelo Alarcón~~1.49 – 1.18

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D3 L1 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 9 v 9~~7 v 9

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Fuenlabrada win

Our number has not moved since we published.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Fuenlabrada win	44%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Pozuelo Alarcón win	30%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	50%	–	–
Both teams to score	53%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	74%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	28%	–	–
Fuenlabrada or draw	70%	–	–
Fuenlabrada clean sheet	31%	–	–
Pozuelo Alarcón clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.9%

0123450 7.2 8.3 4.9 1 10.4 11.9 7.0 2.8 2 7.6 8.7 5.1 2.1 3 3.8 4.4 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Fuenlabrada down, Pozuelo Alarcón across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,638 Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.6% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Fuenlabrada at home: 1.67 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 3). Pozuelo Alarcón away: 1.00 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.49 goals for Fuenlabrada, 1.18 for Pozuelo Alarcón. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 this season · since 5 Sept

FUENLABRADA

DLWDWD0–0 · 1–3 · 3–1 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 2–2

POZUELO ALARCÓN

DDDWLW1–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 3–2 · 1–5 · 4–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Las Rozas	6	+7	13
2	Colonia Moscardó	6	+9	12
3	Cala Pozuelo	6	+2	12
4	Galapagar	6	+3	11
5	Trival Valderas	6	+3	11
6	Móstoles	6	+3	11
7	Fuenlabrada	6	+1	9
8	Unión Adarve	6	−1	9
9	Pozuelo Alarcón	6	−2	9
10	RC Alcobendas	6	+1	8
11	Leganés II	6	+2	7
12	Torrejón	6	+1	7
13	Parla Escuela	6	−1	6
14	Alcobendas Sport	6	−2	5
15	Real Aranjuez	6	−4	5
16	Rayo Vallecano II	6	−6	4
17	Villanueva Pardillo	6	−8	4
18	SS Reyes II	6	−8	3