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Colonia Moscardó v Las Rozas

Colonia Moscardó

1–1Full time

Las Rozas

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · SUN 18 OCT

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 13:36

Colonia Moscardó 1–1 Las Rozas LAS ROZAS WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Las Rozas win~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.882

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 19 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Las Rozas win at 39%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Las Rozas 39% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 38–23–39
1′KICK-OFF Colonia Moscardó v Las Rozas
9′Colonia Moscardó find the net on 8′. 1–0. 1–0 · 62–20–18
9′We said Las Rozas at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 18%. 1–0 · 62–20–18
9′⚽ GOAL · 8' Colonia Moscardó 1–0 Las Rozas
9′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 9' Las Rozas win: 39% at kick-off, 18% now
9′THE CALL SWINGS · 9' Colonia Moscardó win is now our likeliest result at 62% (was Las Rozas win 18%)
29′We said Las Rozas at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 64–21–14
30′The goal count is tracking the 3.2 we expected. 1–0 · 64–21–14
45′Colonia Moscardó ahead on 12′ through D. Leiton. 1–0. 1–0 · 67–22–11
45′HALF-TIME Colonia Moscardó 1–0 Las Rozas
46′SECOND HALF Colonia Moscardó 1–0 Las Rozas
50′We said Las Rozas at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 69–22–9
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Las Rozas win: 39% at kick-off, 9% now
63′A goal for Las Rozas on 63′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 26–48–26
63′⚽ GOAL · 63' Colonia Moscardó 1–1 Las Rozas
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 63' Las Rozas win: 39% at kick-off, 26% now
63′THE CALL SWINGS · 63' Draw is now our likeliest result at 48% (was Colonia Moscardó win 26%)
64′We said Las Rozas at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 26%. 1–1 · 25–49–26
67′We said Las Rozas at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–52–24
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' Las Rozas win: 39% at kick-off, 19% now
79′Colonia Moscardó score on 79′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 85–13–1
79′We said Las Rozas at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 1%. 2–1 · 85–13–1
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Colonia Moscardó 2–1 Las Rozas
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Las Rozas win: 39% at kick-off, 1% now
79′THE CALL SWINGS · 79' Colonia Moscardó win is now our likeliest result at 85% (was Draw 13%)
80′GOAL DISALLOWED · 80' Colonia Moscardó
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' Las Rozas win: 39% at kick-off, 14% now
80′THE CALL SWINGS · 80' Draw is now our likeliest result at 73% (was Colonia Moscardó win 14%)
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Las Rozas win: 39% at kick-off, 9% now
FTFULL TIME Colonia Moscardó 1–1 Las Rozas
FTColonia Moscardó 1–1 Las Rozas · Las Rozas win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Las Rozas just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Colonia Moscardó 38%, draw 23%, Las Rozas 39%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on Colonia Moscardó v Las RozasBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Colonia Moscardó win38%

Draw23%

Las Rozas win39%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 11:00

RoundGroup 7 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Colonia Moscardó

Las Rozas

8Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 7

Last match: 11 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 7

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · las rozas winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

39% The market–

Us39%

We make Las Rozas a 39% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.6, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Colonia Moscardó v Las Rozas~~1.56 – 1.59

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 this season · since 5 Sept~~W3 D3 L0 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 12 v 13~~2 v 1

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Colonia Moscardó win	38%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Las Rozas win	39%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	60%	–	–
Both teams to score	62%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	82%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	39%	–	–
Colonia Moscardó or draw	61%	–	–
Colonia Moscardó clean sheet	21%	–	–
Las Rozas clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.4%

0123450 4.5 7.0 5.4 2.9 1 6.9 10.4 8.2 4.4 2 5.3 8.1 6.3 3.4 3 2.8 4.2 3.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Colonia Moscardó down, Las Rozas across0–5 goals a side shown (98.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,640 Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.4% of games this season, across 56 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.75 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Colonia Moscardó at home: 3.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Las Rozas away: 1.67 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.56 goals for Colonia Moscardó, 1.59 for Las Rozas. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.75

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~LAS 1–0 COL · COL 3–3 LAS · COL 1–2 LAS · LAS 1–0 COL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 this season · since 5 Sept

COLONIA MOSCARDÓ

WDWDWD1–0 · 1–1 · 5–1 · 2–2 · 5–1 · 1–1

LAS ROZAS

WWDLWW3–1 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 3–0 · 4–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Las Rozas	6	+7	13
2	Colonia Moscardó	6	+9	12
3	Cala Pozuelo	6	+2	12
4	Pozuelo Alarcón	7	−1	12
5	Galapagar	6	+3	11
6	Trival Valderas	6	+3	11
7	Móstoles	6	+3	11
8	Fuenlabrada	7	0	9
9	Unión Adarve	6	−1	9
10	RC Alcobendas	6	+1	8
11	Leganés II	6	+2	7
12	Torrejón	6	+1	7
13	Parla Escuela	6	−1	6
14	Alcobendas Sport	7	−2	6
15	Real Aranjuez	7	−4	6
16	Rayo Vallecano II	6	−6	4
17	Villanueva Pardillo	6	−8	4
18	SS Reyes II	6	−8	3