Home › Football › Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 › Cala Pozuelo v RC Alcobendas

Cala Pozuelo v RC Alcobendas

Cala Pozuelo

2–1Full time

RC Alcobendas

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 21:01

Cala Pozuelo 2–1 RC Alcobendas CALA POZUELO WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Cala Pozuelo win~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.549

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 17 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Cala Pozuelo win at 40%.
1′KICK-OFF Cala Pozuelo v RC Alcobendas
2′Much as we predicted: Cala Pozuelo was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–24–36
12′Much as we predicted: Cala Pozuelo was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 39–26–35
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Cala Pozuelo 1–0 RC Alcobendas
45′HALF-TIME Cala Pozuelo 1–0 RC Alcobendas
46′SECOND HALF Cala Pozuelo 1–0 RC Alcobendas
73′⚽ GOAL · 72' Cala Pozuelo 1–1 RC Alcobendas
75′⚽ GOAL · 45' Cala Pozuelo 1–1 RC Alcobendas
75′⚽ GOAL · 72' Cala Pozuelo 1–1 RC Alcobendas
78′⚽ GOAL · 45' Cala Pozuelo 1–1 RC Alcobendas
78′⚽ GOAL · 72' Cala Pozuelo 1–1 RC Alcobendas
79′⚽ GOAL · 45' Cala Pozuelo 1–1 RC Alcobendas
79′⚽ GOAL · 72' Cala Pozuelo 1–1 RC Alcobendas
83′⚽ GOAL · 45' Cala Pozuelo 1–1 RC Alcobendas
83′⚽ GOAL · 72' Cala Pozuelo 1–1 RC Alcobendas
90′⚽ GOAL · 92' Cala Pozuelo 2–1 RC Alcobendas
90′⚽ GOAL · 45' Cala Pozuelo 2–1 RC Alcobendas
90′⚽ GOAL · 72' Cala Pozuelo 2–1 RC Alcobendas
FTFULL TIME Cala Pozuelo 2–1 RC Alcobendas
FTCala Pozuelo 2–1 RC Alcobendas · Cala Pozuelo win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Cala Pozuelo win40%

Draw24%

RC Alcobendas win36%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 18:30

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cala pozuelo winPublished 10 Oct 18:40

40% The market–

Us40%

We make Cala Pozuelo a 40% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.5, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Cala Pozuelo win	40%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
RC Alcobendas win	36%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	59%	–	–
Both teams to score	61%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	81%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	37%	–	–
Cala Pozuelo or draw	64%	–	–
Cala Pozuelo clean sheet	23%	–	–
RC Alcobendas clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.6%

0123450 4.9 7.1 5.2 2.6 1 7.4 10.6 7.9 4.0 2 5.8 8.3 6.1 3.1 3 3.1 4.4 3.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Cala Pozuelo down, RC Alcobendas across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,629 Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.3% of games this season, across 45 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Cala Pozuelo at home: 1.67 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). RC Alcobendas away: 0.50 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 2).

What the model expects

1.59 goals for Cala Pozuelo, 1.50 for RC Alcobendas. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7

CALA POZUELO

WLWLWW4–1 · 1–3 · 3–2 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 3–1

RC ALCOBENDAS

WDDWL5–2 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 4–2 · 0–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Colonia Moscardó	5	+9	11
2	Trival Valderas	5	+4	11
3	Móstoles	5	+4	11
4	Las Rozas	5	+5	10
5	Cala Pozuelo	5	+1	9
6	RC Alcobendas	5	+2	8
7	Galapagar	5	+2	8
8	Fuenlabrada	5	+1	8
9	Leganés II	5	+3	7
10	Torrejón	5	+1	6
11	Unión Adarve	5	−2	6
12	Pozuelo Alarcón	5	−3	6
13	Parla Escuela	5	−1	5
14	Alcobendas Sport	5	−1	5
15	Real Aranjuez	5	−4	4
16	SS Reyes II	5	−6	3
17	Villanueva Pardillo	5	−8	3
18	Rayo Vallecano II	5	−7	1