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Alcobendas Sport v Real Aranjuez

Alcobendas Sport

2–2Full time

Real Aranjuez

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · SAT 17 OCT

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:42

Alcobendas Sport 2–2 Real Aranjuez ALCOBENDAS SPORT WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Alcobendas Sport win~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.940

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Alcobendas Sport win at 51%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Alcobendas Sport 51% before kick-off, 51% now. 0–0 · 51–22–26
1′KICK-OFF Alcobendas Sport v Real Aranjuez
10′Alcobendas Sport score on 9′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 74–16–11
10′We said Alcobendas Sport at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 74%. 1–0 · 74–16–11
10′⚽ GOAL · 9' Alcobendas Sport 1–0 Real Aranjuez
10′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 10' Alcobendas Sport win: 51% at kick-off, 74% now
12′Real Aranjuez find the net on 12′. 1–1. 1–1 · 49–24–26
12′⚽ GOAL · 12' Alcobendas Sport 1–1 Real Aranjuez
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 12' Alcobendas Sport win: 51% at kick-off, 49% now
30′A goal for Alcobendas Sport on 30′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 75–17–9
30′We said Alcobendas Sport at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 2–1 · 75–17–9
30′⚽ GOAL · 30' Alcobendas Sport 2–1 Real Aranjuez
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 30' Alcobendas Sport win: 51% at kick-off, 75% now
40′Real Aranjuez score on 40′ to make it 2–2. 2–2 · 43–33–25
40′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.2 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 43–33–25
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Alcobendas Sport 2–2 Real Aranjuez
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Alcobendas Sport win: 51% at kick-off, 43% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Alcobendas Sport win: 51% at kick-off, 41% now
45′HALF-TIME Alcobendas Sport 2–2 Real Aranjuez
46′SECOND HALF Alcobendas Sport 2–2 Real Aranjuez
50′We said Alcobendas Sport at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 2–2 · 39–38–23
56′THE CALL SWINGS · 56' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Alcobendas Sport win 36%)
60′We said Alcobendas Sport at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 2–2 · 34–45–21
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' Alcobendas Sport win: 51% at kick-off, 31% now
68′We said Alcobendas Sport at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 2–2 · 29–53–18
73′We said Alcobendas Sport at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 2–2 · 24–60–16
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' Alcobendas Sport win: 51% at kick-off, 21% now
78′We said Alcobendas Sport at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 2–2 · 19–68–12
82′We said Alcobendas Sport at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 2–2 · 14–77–9
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Alcobendas Sport win: 51% at kick-off, 11% now
86′We said Alcobendas Sport at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 2–2 · 9–85–6
91′🟥 RED CARD · 90+1' Real Aranjuez
92′Real Aranjuez are down to ten from 90′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 2–2 · 4–93–3
92′We said Alcobendas Sport at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 2–2 · 4–93–3
FTFULL TIME Alcobendas Sport 2–2 Real Aranjuez
FTAlcobendas Sport 2–2 Real Aranjuez · Alcobendas Sport win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Alcobendas Sport are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Alcobendas Sport 51%, draw 22%, Real Aranjuez 26%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on Alcobendas Sport v Real AranjuezBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Alcobendas Sport win51%

Draw22%

Real Aranjuez win26%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 16:00

RoundGroup 7 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Alcobendas Sport

Real Aranjuez

6Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 7

Last match: 10 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
14	Alcobendas Sport	6	−2	5
15	Real Aranjuez	6	−4	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · alcobendas sport winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

51% The market–

Us51%

We make Alcobendas Sport a 51% chance to win. The model expects 1.9–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Alcobendas Sport v Real Aranjuez~~1.89 – 1.27

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 5 v 5~~14 v 15

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Alcobendas Sport win	51%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Real Aranjuez win	26%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	61%	–	–
Both teams to score	60%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	82%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	39%	–	–
Alcobendas Sport or draw	74%	–	–
Alcobendas Sport clean sheet	29%	–	–
Real Aranjuez clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.0%

0123450 4.6 5.7 3.6 1 8.1 10.0 6.4 2.8 2 7.5 9.1 5.8 2.5 3 4.7 5.7 3.6 4 2.4 2.8 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Alcobendas Sport down, Real Aranjuez across0–5 goals a side shown (98.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,638 Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.6% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 3.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Alcobendas Sport at home: 0.67 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Real Aranjuez away: 1.00 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.89 goals for Alcobendas Sport, 1.27 for Real Aranjuez. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~REA 0–2 ALC · ALC 4–1 REA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 this season · since 5 Sept

ALCOBENDAS SPORT

DLDLWL0–0 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 1–0 · 3–4

REAL ARANJUEZ

LLDLWD0–2 · 2–5 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 5–3 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Las Rozas	6	+7	13
2	Colonia Moscardó	6	+9	12
3	Cala Pozuelo	6	+2	12
4	Galapagar	6	+3	11
5	Trival Valderas	6	+3	11
6	Móstoles	6	+3	11
7	Fuenlabrada	6	+1	9
8	Unión Adarve	6	−1	9
9	Pozuelo Alarcón	6	−2	9
10	RC Alcobendas	6	+1	8
11	Leganés II	6	+2	7
12	Torrejón	6	+1	7
13	Parla Escuela	6	−1	6
14	Alcobendas Sport	6	−2	5
15	Real Aranjuez	6	−4	5
16	Rayo Vallecano II	6	−6	4
17	Villanueva Pardillo	6	−8	4
18	SS Reyes II	6	−8	3