Alcobendas Sport v Rayo Vallecano II prediction · Tercera División RFEF

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Alcobendas SportDrawRayo Vallecano II

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Alcobendas Sport 42%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Alcobendas Sport are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Alcobendas Sport 42%, draw 22%, Rayo Vallecano II 36%. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 67%.

The AI’s read on Alcobendas Sport v Rayo Vallecano IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Alcobendas Sport win42%

Draw22%

Rayo Vallecano II win36%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 16:00

RoundGroup 7 · matchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Alcobendas Sport

Rayo Vallecano II

7Days since last match13

Last match: 24 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 7

Last match: 18 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 7

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
15	Alcobendas Sport	8	−3	6
17	Rayo Vallecano II	7	−7	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · alcobendas sport winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

42% The market–

Us42%

We make Alcobendas Sport a 42% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–1.7, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Alcobendas Sport v Rayo Vallecano II~~1.81 – 1.67

~~Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 this season · since 13 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W1 D0 L5

~~Table places · points 6 v 4~~15 v 17

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Alcobendas Sport win	42%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Rayo Vallecano II win	36%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	67%	–	–
Both teams to score	67%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	86%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	46%	–	–
Alcobendas Sport or draw	64%	–	–
Alcobendas Sport clean sheet	19%	–	–
Rayo Vallecano II clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.3%

0123450 3.4 5.3 4.4 2.4 1 5.7 9.3 7.6 4.2 2 5.1 8.2 6.7 3.8 3 3.0 4.9 4.0 2.3 4 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Alcobendas Sport down, Rayo Vallecano II across0–5 goals a side shown (97.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,650 Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.6% of games this season, across 66 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 5 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Alcobendas Sport at home: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Rayo Vallecano II away: 1.50 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.81 goals for Alcobendas Sport, 1.67 for Rayo Vallecano II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 8

~~Both scored~~5 of 8

~~Last meetings~~RAY 4–1 ALC · ALC 0–3 RAY · RAY 1–3 ALC · ALC 1–1 RAY

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 this season · since 13 Sept

ALCOBENDAS SPORT

DLWLDL1–1 · 2–3 · 1–0 · 3–4 · 2–2 · 3–4

RAYO VALLECANO II

LLLLWL2–3 · 1–4 · 1–2 · 2–4 · 1–0 · 3–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Las Rozas	8	+8	17
2	Móstoles	7	+6	14
3	Cala Pozuelo	8	+2	14
4	Colonia Moscardó	7	+9	13
5	Unión Adarve	7	+3	12
6	Trival Valderas	7	+3	12
7	Pozuelo Alarcón	7	−1	12
8	Galapagar	7	0	11
9	Torrejón	7	+5	10
10	Leganés II	7	+3	10
11	Fuenlabrada	8	0	10
12	RC Alcobendas	7	0	8
13	Real Aranjuez	8	−4	7
14	SS Reyes II	8	−7	7
15	Alcobendas Sport	8	−3	6
16	Parla Escuela	7	−5	6
17	Rayo Vallecano II	7	−7	4
18	Villanueva Pardillo	7	−12	4