Villarreal III v Crevillente prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 20:08

Villarreal III 1–0 Crevillente VILLARREAL III WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Villarreal III win~~63%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.201

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 9 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Villarreal III win at 63%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Villarreal III 63% before kick-off, 63% now. 0–0 · 63–19–17
1′KICK-OFF Villarreal III v Crevillente
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Villarreal III win: 63% at kick-off, 53% now
39′Villarreal III find the net on 39′. 1–0. 1–0 · 82–13–5
39′⚽ GOAL · 39' Villarreal III 1–0 Crevillente
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Villarreal III win: 63% at kick-off, 82% now
40′We said Villarreal III at 63% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 82%. 1–0 · 82–13–5
45′HALF-TIME Villarreal III 1–0 Crevillente
46′SECOND HALF Villarreal III 1–0 Crevillente
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' Villarreal III win: 63% at kick-off, 83% now
65′We said Villarreal III at 63% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
78′We said Villarreal III at 63% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 83' Villarreal III win: 63% at kick-off, 93% now
86′We said Villarreal III at 63% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
FTFULL TIME Villarreal III 1–0 Crevillente
FTVillarreal III 1–0 Crevillente · Villarreal III win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Villarreal III are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Villarreal III 63%, draw 19%, Crevillente 17%. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Villarreal III v CrevillenteBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Villarreal III win63%

Draw19%

Crevillente win17%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 17:30

RoundGroup 6 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Villarreal III

Crevillente

8Days since last match7

Last match: 9 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 6

Last match: 10 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 6

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · villarreal iii winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

63% The market–

Us63%

We make Villarreal III a 63% chance to win. The model expects 2.3–1.1, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Villarreal III v Crevillente~~2.29 – 1.10

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 this season · since 5 Sept~~W5 D0 L1 · W2 D3 L0

~~Table places · points 15 v 9~~1 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Villarreal III win	63%	–	–
Draw	19%	–	–
Crevillente win	17%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	65%	–	–
Both teams to score	59%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	84%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	44%	–	–
Villarreal III or draw	83%	–	–
Villarreal III clean sheet	34%	–	–
Crevillente clean sheet	11%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.4%

0123450 3.8 3.9 2.2 1 7.9 8.6 4.7 2 8.7 9.4 5.1 3 6.6 7.0 3.8 4 3.8 4.1 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Villarreal III down, Crevillente across0–5 goals a side shown (96.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,559 Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.4% of games this season, across 53 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 1.25 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Villarreal III at home: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Crevillente away: 1.33 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.29 goals for Villarreal III, 1.10 for Crevillente. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~1.25

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~CRE 1–2 VIL · VIL 1–0 CRE · CRE 0–0 VIL · VIL 1–0 CRE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 this season · since 5 Sept

VILLARREAL III

WWWLWW3–0 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 3–1

CREVILLENTE

WDDDW1–0 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Villarreal III	6	+6	15
2	Levante II	6	+9	13
3	Vall de Uxó	6	+6	12
4	Hércules II	6	+3	11
5	Torrent	6	+3	10
6	Crevillente	5	+2	9
7	Roda	6	+2	9
8	Eldense B	6	+2	9
9	Saguntino	6	0	8
10	Acero	6	+1	7
11	SC Torrevieja	7	−6	7
12	Ontinyent 1931	6	−1	6
13	Jove Español	6	−4	6
14	Atzeneta	6	−1	5
15	Buñol	6	−5	5
16	Torrellano	6	−5	4
17	Soneja	6	−6	4
18	Utiel	6	−6	3