Utiel v Villarreal III prediction · Tercera División RFEF

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

UtielDrawVillarreal III

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Villarreal III 50%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Villarreal III are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Utiel 26%, draw 25%, Villarreal III 50%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Utiel v Villarreal IIIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Utiel win26%

Draw25%

Villarreal III win50%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 16:30

RoundGroup 6 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Utiel

Villarreal III

16Days since last match8

Last match: 9 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 6

Last match: 17 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 6

0Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · villarreal iii winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

50% The market–

Us50%

We make Villarreal III a 50% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–1.6, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Utiel v Villarreal III~~1.08 – 1.62

~~Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 this season · since 6 Sept~~W0 D3 L3 · W5 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 3 v 18~~18 v 1

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Utiel win	26%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Villarreal III win	50%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	50%	–	–
Both teams to score	52%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	75%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	29%	–	–
Utiel or draw	50%	–	–
Utiel clean sheet	20%	–	–
Villarreal III clean sheet	34%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.7%

0123450 7.1 10.8 8.7 4.7 1 7.3 11.7 9.2 5.0 2.1 2 4.0 6.2 5.0 2.7 3 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Utiel down, Villarreal III across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,563 Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 matches up to 20 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.1% of games this season, across 57 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 2.17 goals a meeting; 2 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Utiel at home: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Villarreal III away: 2.17 scored, 0.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.08 goals for Utiel, 1.62 for Villarreal III. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~2.17

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 6

~~Both scored~~2 of 6

~~Last meetings~~VIL 3–1 UTI · UTI 0–2 VIL · UTI 1–0 VIL · VIL 1–0 UTI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 this season · since 6 Sept

UTIEL

DDLDLL0–0 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 0–3

VILLARREAL III

WWLWWW2–1 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 3–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Villarreal III	7	+7	18
2	Levante II	7	+9	14
3	Vall de Uxó	6	+6	12
4	Hércules II	6	+3	11
5	Torrent	6	+3	10
6	Eldense B	7	+2	10
7	Crevillente	7	+1	10
8	Roda	6	+2	9
9	Acero	7	+1	8
10	Saguntino	6	0	8
11	SC Torrevieja	7	−6	7
12	Ontinyent 1931	6	−1	6
13	Jove Español	6	−4	6
14	Atzeneta	6	−1	5
15	Buñol	6	−5	5
16	Torrellano	6	−5	4
17	Soneja	6	−6	4
18	Utiel	6	−6	3